基于拉丁超立方采样的小范围分布式光伏出力时空概率分布生成方法  

Generating Method for Spatiotemporal Probability Distribution of Distributed PV Output in Small Range Based on Latin Hypercube Sampling

作　　者：杨龙飞 高山[2] 蔡新雷 余洋 李亚南 YANG Longfei;GAO Shan;CAI Xinlei;YU Yang;LI Yanan(Power Dispatching and Control Center of Guangdong Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510062,China;Department of Electrical Engineering,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China;State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources,North China Electric Power University(Baoding),Baoding,Hebei 071003,China)

机构地区：[1]广东电网有限责任公司电力调度控制中心,广州510062 [2]东南大学电气工程学院,南京210096 [3]新能源电力系统国家重点实验室,华北电力大学(保定),河北保定071003

出　　处：《南方电网技术》2023年第9期38-48,共11页Southern Power System Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52077078);中国南方电网有限责任公司科技项目(036000KK52220032)。

摘　　要：为应对分布式光伏在配电网中广泛的接入,提出了一种基于拉丁超立方采样的光伏时空概率分布出力生成方法。在对影响光伏出力的因素进行分析后,考虑到在较小范围内外界环境的相似性,采用FFT滤波结合二阶差分筛选,将光伏出力分解成基础值和波动值,改进了传统方法中将光伏出力整体进行相关性分析的处理方式,认为在较小的范围内这种相关性只存在于波动值之间,进一步通过相关性系数矩阵拟合的方法建立相关系数和距离之前的关系。在Nataf变换中进行采样空间变换之前增加Lilliefors检验步骤,判断波动值的分布满足正态分布的情况下能够避免空间变换带来的复杂计算,并快速构建多变量联合分布。最后通过光伏出力模拟生成模型,得到了既在时序上满足单个光伏出力概率分布,又在空间上满足相关性系数矩阵的光伏出力模拟概率分布值。To meet the wide access of distributed photovoltaic(PV)in distribution network,this paper presents a generating method for spatiotemporal probability distribution of distributed PV output based on Latin hypercube sampling.In this paper,after the factors that affect PV output are analysed,FFT filtering combined with second-order difference screening is used to decompose PV output into basic values and fluctuation values considering the similarity of the external environment in a small range,which improves the traditional method.The correlation is considered to exist only between the fluctuation values in a small range instead of the whole output values of the traditional method.Further the relationship between the correlation coefficient and the distance is further established by the correlation coefficient matrix fitting method.The Lilliefors test process is added before the sampling space transformation in the Nataf transform to determine whether the distribution of the fluctuation value satisfies the normal distribution.Complex calculation caused by the spatial transformation can be avoided and the multivariate joint distribution can be constructed quickly if the distribution of fluctuation value satisfies the normal distribution.Finally,by using the PV output simulation generating model,the simulated probability distribution of PV output can satisfy the probability distribution of single PV output in time series and fit the probability distribution PVs output simulation of the correlation coefficient matrix in space.

关 键 词：分布式光伏 出力模拟 时空分布 FFT滤波 Nataf变换 

分 类 号：TM615[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]