基于长期监测的车辆荷载效应时变极值预测  

Time-variant Extreme Value Prediction of Vehicle Load Effect Based on Long-term Monitoring

作　　者：焦美菊 郝建名 陈露丹 郑元勋[1] JIAO Meiju;HAO Jianming;CHEN Ludan;ZHENG Yuanxun(School of Water Conservancy and Transportation,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利与交通学院,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《郑州大学学报（工学版）》2023年第6期105-111,共7页Journal of Zhengzhou University（Engineering Science）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51878623);河南省高等学校重点科研资助项目(20B560019)。

摘　　要：为建立准确合理的车辆荷载效应极值的概率模型,基于现有的车辆荷载效应极值理论和极值模型,提出一种新的预测模型——区组超阈值模型。首先,采用阈值模型,充分利用已有的监测信息建立相应的超阈值模型;其次,研究超阈值模型和区组最大值模型之间的参数关联,通过点过程构建2种模型之间转换的桥梁,由已建立的阈值模型推导区组最大值模型,进而得到任意使用年限内车辆荷载效应的最大值模型;最后,检验所建立的区组超阈值模型,并结合桥梁的设计使用年限,利用模型外推了10、40、70、100 a车辆荷载应变的概率密度。对某斜拉桥跨中截面5个钢纵向传感器所采集的数据进行建模分析,结果表明:模型诊断图中的P-P图和Q-Q图都具有非常良好的线性,经验重现水平所描绘的点均在重现水平的置信度为95%的置信区间内,经验概率密度直方图也与相应的GP分布完美拟合,均证明模型能够很好地模拟和预测实际车流作用下的车辆荷载效应极值。In order to establish an accurate and reasonable probability model for extreme value of vehicle load(VL)effect,based on the existing extreme value theories and models of VL effect,a novel prediction model named block over-threshold model was proposed.Firstly,the over-threshold model was established by making full use of the existing monitoring information according to POT method;and then the parameter correlation between the over-threshold model and the block maximum model was studied.A bridge was constructed for their conversion through a point process,afterward the block maximum model was derived from established GPD model.Thus the maximum distribution of VL effect in any T period was predicted.Finally,the established block over-threshold model was tested,and the probability density of VL strain in 10,40,70 and 100 a was extrapolated by using the model in combination with bridge design service life.The data collected by five steel longitudinal sensors in mid-span section of a cable-stayed bridge were analyzed and modeled.The results showed that the P-P diagram and Q-Q diagram in the model diagnostic plots all had very good linearity,the points described by the empirical recurrence level were within the 95%confidence interval of the recurrence level,and the empirical probability density histogram also fitted perfectly with the corresponding GP distribution.They all proved that the model could well simulate and predict the extreme value of VL effect with actual traffic flow.

关 键 词：极值理论 监测信息 区组超阈值模型 车辆荷载 模型检验 

分 类 号：U441.2[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程] U448.22[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]