两次台海危机前后台湾地区领导人对美国可靠性之评估——基于情感效用信号理论的分析  

How Taiwan's Leaders Judge US Reliability during the Two Strait Crises:An Analysis with Affective Signaling Theory

作　　者：王明德 WANG Mingde(School of International Studies,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610064,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学国际关系学院,四川成都610064

出　　处：《闽台关系研究》2023年第3期38-53,共16页Research on Fujian-Taiwan Relationship

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(1082204112D57)。

摘　　要：中美两国围绕台湾问题的博弈尚在和平与冲突的前景间摇摆。此不确定性的核心因素之一,即美国在台海的延伸威慑是否可信。自冷战以来,随着美国的相对衰落和联盟承诺负担的持续扩张,其威慑战略越发依赖地区盟友的配合。从政治层面来看,中美台海博弈实质上是美国对台再保证与中国反说服之间的较量。因此,美国对台再保证的生效机制,是中国应对举措的重要参考。同盟文献对此提出的传统理论洞见,即再保证的效应取决于传递同盟可靠性的信号是否产生足够“昂贵”的成本。近年来,国际关系学界的“情感革命”正在挑战这一范式。以冷战时期两次台海危机前后台湾地区领导人对美可靠性的认知过程为例,说明基于情感效用信号的分析框架是取代昂贵信号理论的有效路径。这对于建立基于领导人心理,研判美国涉台外交政策效应的科学体系具有实际意义。Whether the China-U.S.competition regarding Taiwan leads to peaceful resolution remains a question of high uncertainty.An essential factor is that if the U.S.government is able to maintain a strategy of credible deterrence in the Taiwan Strait.Since the end of the Cold War,the performance of U.S.strategic deterrence has been increasingly relying on the cooperation of its regional allies,owing to the the relative decline of the American power and Washington's increasing burden of alliance commitments.Politically speaking,the two powers'completion in the Taiwan Strait entails essentially the balance between the credibility of American reassurance versus that of Chinese dissuasion.In a sense,the effective mechanism of American re-guarantee to Taiwan is an important reference for China's countermeasures.Its credibility,according to mainstream alliance studies,depends on if the U.S.can signal its alliance reliability through sufficiently costly actions.Yet,this paradigm of costly signaling has been increasingly challenged by IR studies emerging from"the affective revolution"in recent years.Building on such a scholarship,this article develops a theory of affective signaling.By analyzing the cognitive processes through which Taiwan leaders assess U.S.reliability during the two Taiwan Strait crises,it shows that the analytical framework based on affective signaling can effectively replace costly signaling theory.This is of practical significance to the establishment of a scientific system based on the psychology of leaders in assessing the efficiency of U.S.foreign policy on Taiwan.

关 键 词：美国 中国台湾 同盟 冷战 延伸威慑 信号 情感 

分 类 号：D618[政治法律—政治学]