我国鸡肉价格波动特征及趋势分析——基于ARMA模型的实证分析  

Analysis on the characteristics and trend of chicken price fluctuation in China——Empirical analysis based on ARMA model

作　　者：杭熙竣 朱正根 Hang Xijun;Zhu Zhenggen(College of Economics and Management,Tianjin Agricultural University,Tianjin 300392,China)

机构地区：[1]天津农学院经济管理学院,天津300392

出　　处：《天津农学院学报》2023年第4期72-77,共6页Journal of Tianjin Agricultural University

摘　　要：以我国鸡肉集贸市场价格为研究对象,基于我国2013—2021年鸡肉集贸市场价格数据,利用census X12季节调整法和HP滤波法对我国鸡肉价格的波动进行了分析。研究发现,我国鸡肉价格存在明显的季节性趋势,每年1—2月份价格较高,6月份价格较低,且在长期中呈现逐渐上升趋势。随后利用ARMA模型对2021年12月—2022年4月的鸡肉价格进行了预测,结果显示,2021年12月—2022年4月我国鸡肉价格总体平稳,波动幅度较小,同时可能会出现下降趋势。最后根据研究结论提出了建立多品类的价格监测预警体系、完善重大流行疫病监测防控管理机制、建立鸡肉生产销售指导建议制度、引导消费者合理预期等对策建议。This article analyzed the chicken price fluctuations by taking the chicken market price in China as the research object,based on the chicken market price data from 2013 to 2021,and using census X12 seasonal adjustment method and HP filter method.The study found that chicken price had obvious seasonal trend,with the price in January and February higher,but in June lower and showed a gradual upward trend in the long term.Then,the ARMA model was used to forecast the chicken price from December 2021 to April 2022.The conclusion showed that during the period from December 2021 to April 2022,the chicken price in China was basically stable,but showed a downward trend.Finally,according to the research conclusions,some policy suggestions were put forward,such as the establishment of multi-category price monitoring and early warning system,the improvement of major epidemic disease monitoring,prevention and control management mechanism,the establishment of chicken production and sales guidance and suggestion systemto guide consumers’reasonable expectations.

关 键 词：鸡肉价格 价格波动特征 价格预测 ARMA模型 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济]