谁主“沉浮”?——基于投资者理性变动对股市波动的影响分析  

Analysis of the Influence of Investor Rational Changes on Stock Market Fluctuation

作　　者：李伯华 赵宝福[1] 贾凯威[1] 吴津津 LI Bohua;ZHAO Baofu;JIA Kaiwei;WU Jinjin(School of Business Administration,Liaoning Technical University,Huludao 125105,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁工程技术大学工商管理学院,辽宁葫芦岛125105

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2023年第9期193-199,共7页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：北京工商大学数字商科与首都发展创新中心项目(SZSK202205);辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目(L22BJY031)。

摘　　要：近年来我国股市波动加剧,引发了社会很大关注。本文以系统论的视角,将股市作为开放系统进行研究,综合分析内部因素与外部因素的交互作用,将股市系统的投资者按理性程度划分为三种类型:理性投资者、非理性投资者和有限理性投资者。通过仿真三类投资者在市场中的动态变化,演绎投资者理性结构对股市价格波动的影响,结果表明投资者的理性结构变动是一个动态均衡过程,非理性投资者也有在市场中存在的必要性,能够丰富市场的流动性。三类投资者在股市交易中理性程度的动态演绎也构成了股市发展的重要动力。未来将继续深入研究投资者的理性结构变动对股市波动的时变影响,将进行一系列的实证研究,以揭示更加复杂影响路径的生成机理。For the past years,the volatility of China’s stock market has intensified,and the fluctuations of stock prices have not conformed to the traditional definition of a random walk process,but present irrational states,and frequently exhibit anomalous phenomena that are inconsistent with the assumptions of traditional financial theories,such as the“thousands of stocks hitting limit down”in 2015,the“fuse”phenomenon in 2016,and the recent fluctuations in the stock market due to the impact of the epidemic,which has attracted great attention from society.Investors serve as carriers and suppliers of heterogeneous beliefs and investor sentiment,playing a role in information transmission and circulation.Heterogeneous beliefs reflect investors’judgments on future expected situations,while investor sentiment is a reflection of investors’psychology,manifested as sensitivity to information.Therefore,this article re-evaluates the volatility of the stock market based on the theory of systemics,and attempts to apply the theory of complex systems to analyze the impact of rational investors’behavior on stock market volatility from a novel perspective.The stock market is studied as an open system,and the interactive impact between heterogeneous beliefs and investor sentiment under the joint effect of external environmental input information and internal factors change is analyzed.Based on individual differences,different types of investors are formed:Irrational investors(completely driven by emotions),limited rational investors(influenced by the other two types of investors),and rational investors.Investors conduct transactions under expected utility,which affects prices,and price changes are then used as initial condition information to enter the next link.The evolution of the stock market system is influenced by a variety of factors,and the interaction relationships between these factors are complex.This article incorporates the entire stock market into a dynamic system,establishes a random dynamic system model,with

关 键 词：随机动力系统 系统动力学 投资者信念 投资者情绪 

分 类 号：F830.91[经济管理—金融学]