港口基础设施、“互联网+”与城市外贸潜力——以粤港澳大湾区为例  

Port Infrastructure,"Internet+"and Foreign Trade Development Potential of Cities--An Exampleof Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

作　　者：曹朋亮 昝欣 暨育雄[1] CAO Pengliang;ZAN Xin;JI Yuxiong(Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China;Antai College of Economics and Management,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200052,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海201804 [2]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200052

出　　处：《综合运输》2023年第9期8-14,共7页China Transportation Review

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFB1600400)。

摘　　要：港口基础设施与“互联网+”对贸易发展的影响,始终受到政治家、投资者和公众的关注。为了深入剖析港口基础设施与“互联网+”与城市对外贸易发展潜力的关系,本研究首先分析了港口基础设施与“互联网+”对城市对外贸易发展潜力的影响机制,并提出假设。随后使用随机森林模型对城市对外贸易发展潜力影响因素的重要性进行排序,并使用隐马尔可夫模型对不同对外贸易发展潜力的城市进行分类。最后,以粤港澳大湾区为例,分析了港口基础设施建设质量对不同类型城市对外贸易发展潜力的异质影响,并剖析了“互联网+”的调节作用,旨在为提升粤港澳大湾区对外贸易发展能力提供经验证据。The impact of port infrastructure and Internet+on trade development has always been of interest to politicians,investors,and the public.To investigate the relationship between port infrastructure,"Internet+"and the development potential of urban foreign trade,this study first analyzes the mechanisms of port infrastructure and Internet+influence on the potential of foreign trade development of cities and then proposes hypotheses.Subsequently,a random forest model is used to rank the importance of factors influencing cities'foreign trade development potential,and a hidden Markov model is adopted to classify cities with different foreign trade development potential.Finally,taking the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area(GBA)as an example,the heterogeneous influence of port infrastructure construction quality on the foreign trade development potential of different types of cities is analyzed,and the moderating role of"Internet+"is dissected,aiming to provide empirical evidence for enhancing the foreign trade development capacity of GBA.

关 键 词：港口基础设施 “互联网+” 粤港澳大湾区 贸易发展潜力 随机森林 隐马尔科夫 

分 类 号：F570.3[经济管理—产业经济]