考虑灵活车次的混合票制下巢式Logit选择行为建模与估计  

Modeling and Estimating Nested Logit Choice Behavior under Hybrid Ticketing System Considering Flexible Trains

作　　者：左大杰[1] 刘璐 骆泳吉 王子康 ZUO Dajie;LIU Lu;LUO Yongji;WANG Zikang(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《铁道学报》2023年第10期34-41,共8页Journal of the China Railway Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72101218);四川省科技计划(2023NSFSC1033);西南交通大学科技建设专款项目(2682022ZK003)。

摘　　要：考虑灵活车次的混合票制能够刺激客运需求,并引导旅客均衡出行。在混合票制下,考虑旅客对不同票制产品的选择有明显的层次关系,同时旅客存在放弃出行的选择行为,构建具有外部选项的巢式Logit选择行为模型。构建对数似然函数,利用多元牛顿迭代法使似然函数极值化,并采用分阶段估计法和同时估计法混合估计模型参数。通过旅客出行意愿调查,得到考虑灵活车次的混合票制下京沪高速铁路旅客出行选择偏好,并分析不同折扣率下各个产品的分担率,验证模型及算法的有效性。研究结果能够计算混合票制下的旅客选择概率,作为预售期前混合票制票额分配的需求输入,也可用于刻画预售期内的旅客选择过程,为席位控制策略的调整提供重要依据。Hybrid ticket system that considers flexible train services can stimulate passenger demand and guide passengers to travel in a balanced manner.Under the hybrid ticket system,considering the clear hierarchical relationship in passenger choices of different ticket products,as well as passenger choice behavior of giving up travel,this paper constructed the Nested Logit(NL)choice behavior model with external options.The logarithmic likelihood function was constructed,and the multivariate Newton-Raphson(NR)iterative method was used to extremize the likelihood function,and the model parameters were estimated by a mixture of staged estimation method and simultaneous estimation method.Through the survey of passengers’travel intentions,the travel choice preferences of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway passengers were obtained under the hybrid ticket system considering flexible train services.The sharing rate of each product under different discount rates was analyzed to verify the effectiveness of the model and algorithm.The research results can calculate the passenger choice probability under the hybrid ticket system,which can be used as the demand input for the allocation of the hybrid ticket system before the pre-sale period,and can also be used to describe the passenger choice process during the pre-sale period,providing an important basis for the adjustment of the seat control strategy.

关 键 词：铁路运输 选择偏好 客流调查 巢式LOGIT模型 

分 类 号：U293.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]