基于ARIMA模型的苎麻纤维产量预测研究  

Prediction of Ramie Fiber Yield Based on ARIMA Model

作　　者：王辉 WANG Hui(International Business School,Hunan Sany Polytechnic College,Changsha 410100,Hunan,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南三一工业职业技术学院国际经贸学院,湖南长沙410100

出　　处：《江苏经贸职业技术学院学报》2023年第5期8-10,共3页Journal of Jiangsu Institute of Commerce

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金项目“基于无人机高光谱成像的苎麻生长与产量估测研究”(2021JJ60011)。

摘　　要：为了解长期定位试验下苎麻纤维产量的变化趋势,推动苎麻种植产业增产提效,基于苎麻多倍体1号品种2010—2019年共30个收获期的纤维产量数据,构建ARIMA纤维产量预测模型,并对模型精度进行验证。结果表明:ARIMA(2,0,3)模型最佳,4个收获期中纤维产量预测值与实测值的平均相对误差百分比为7.72%,整体预测效果较好,适用于该地区多倍体1号纤维产量的短期预测。In order to understand the changing trend of ramie fiber yield under long-term positioning test and promote the ramie planting industry to increase production and efficiency,an ARIMA fiber yield prediction model was established based on the fiber yield data of ramie variety Tri-1 during a total of 30 harvesting periods from 2010 to 2019,and the accuracy of the model was verified.The results showed that ARIMA(2,0,3)model was the best,and the average relative error percentage between the predicted value and the measured value was 7.72%.The overall prediction effect was good,and it was suitable for short-term prediction of Tri-1 fiber yield in this region.

关 键 词：苎麻 ARIMA模型 时间序列 产量预测 

分 类 号：F326.1[经济管理—产业经济]