郑州大都市区运输通道客流分担率预测研究  

Prediction of passenger flow sharing rate of transportation corridors in Zhengzhou metropolitan area

作　　者：李邦兰 LI Bang-lan(Intelligent Transportation Laboratory,Henan Police College,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]河南警察学院智能交通实验室,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《河南城建学院学报》2023年第5期43-47,54,共6页Journal of Henan University of Urban Construction

基　　金：河南省科技厅科技攻关项目(232102240019);河南警察学院院级课题(HNJY-2022-40,HNJY-2023-35);河南警察学院教育教学改革与实践项目(JY2022033)。

摘　　要：郑州大都市区是建设郑州国家中心城市的重要空间载体,科学地预测郑州与开封、新乡、焦作、许昌4市之间的运输通道的客流分担率,对于加快郑州与这4市的融合发展非常重要。通过旅客出行意愿调查,对影响旅客选择出行方式的因素进行分析,构建广义费用函数。利用层次分析法建立改进的Logit模型,并预测了郑州与4市之间的运输通道内各客运方式的客流分担率。研究结果显示:郑开通道内的客运分担率分别为普通铁路19%、高速铁路24%、城际铁路30%、高速公路27%;郑新通道内的客运分担率分别为普通铁路27%、高速铁路34%、高速公路39%;郑许通道内的客运分担率分别为普通铁路18%、高速铁路61%、高速公路21%;郑焦通道内的客运分担率分别为高速铁路32%、城际铁路35%、高速公路33%。The Zhengzhou metropolitan area is an important spatial carrier for the construction of the national central city of Zhengzhou.Scientifically predicting the passenger flow sharing rate of the transportation corridors between Zhengzhou and the four cities of Kaifeng,Xinxiang,Jiaozuo,and Xuchang is important for accelerating the integration and development of Zhengzhou and these four cities.Through a survey on passengers′travel willingness,the factors that influence passengers′choice of travel mode are analyzed,and a generalized cost function is constructed based on this.An improved Logit model was established using the analytic hierarchy process,and the passenger flow sharing rate of each passenger transport mode in the transportation corridors between Zhengzhou and the four cities was predicted.The research results show that the passenger sharing rates in the Zhengzhou-Kaifeng corridor are 19%for ordinary railways,24%for high-speed railways,30%for intercity railways,and 27%for expressways;the passenger sharing rates for the Zhengzhou-Xinjiang corridor are 27%for ordinary railways,34%for railways and 39%for expressways;the passenger share rates in the Zhengzhou-Xuchang corridor are 18%for ordinary railways,61%for high-speed railways,and 21%for expressways;the passenger share rates for the Zhengzhou-Jiaozuo corridor are 32%for high-speed railways,35%for international railways and 33%for expressways.

关 键 词：运输通道 客流分担率 LOGIT模型 广义费用函数 预测模型 

分 类 号：U491.14[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]