基于三维模型的发达国家碳中和绿色新政分析及启示研究  

Analysis and Enlightenment of Green New Deal for Carbon Neutrality in Developed Countries Based on Three-dimensional Model

作　　者：李岚春 陈伟[1,2,3] LI Lanchun;CHEN Wei(Wuhan Documentation and Information Center,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Wuhan 430071,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Big Data in Science and Technology,Wuhan 430071,China;School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院武汉文献情报中心,武汉430071 [2]科技大数据湖北省重点实验室,武汉430071 [3]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190

出　　处：《世界科技研究与发展》2023年第5期531-542,共12页World Sci-Tech R&D

基　　金：中国科学院A类战略性先导科技专项“变革性洁净能源关键技术与示范”(XDA21010103);中国科学院战略研究与决策支持系统建设专项“双碳行动能源科技情报支撑与战略研究”(GHJ-ZLZX-2023-06);中国科学院轻型动力创新研究院创新引导基金重点项目“工程热物理科技发展战略规划研究”(CXYJJ21-MS-01);先进能源科学与技术广东省实验室项目“技术进步对能源体系发展的影响研究”(FWSQHT-20211126-00023)。

摘　　要：应对气候变化推动主要国家/地区出台面向2050年碳中和长期愿景的“绿色新政”。基于智库研究理论过程融合法(DIIS),构建基本政策工具、产业发展周期、技术创新领域的政策分析三维模型框架,并选取主要发达国家/地区碳中和绿色新政量化分析。研究显示:各国偏重供给型、环境型政策工具的使用,需求型政策有所欠缺;大多数政策集中在技术开发与示范、规模化应用阶段,基础研究试验阶段支持政策较少;碳减排和交叉领域技术创新成为各国部署重点,而负排放技术的政策支持存在较大缺口。建议未来我国应继续加强在碳达峰碳中和目标的绿色资金投入强度,制定相关政策应适度使用供给推动、环境支撑以及需求拉动政策工具,加大可再生能源、电动汽车等优势清洁产业应用支持力度,推动资源循环利用、工业过程脱碳、绿氢、零碳船舶和飞机等尚处于早期阶段的关键未来产业有序发展,加强碳减排、负排放以及交叉领域的技术创新。To address climate change,major countries/regions are encouraged to launch green New Deals facing carbon neutral long-term vision by 2050.Based on the DIIS think tank research theory,the study constructs a three-dimensional model framework of policy analysis of essential policy tools,industrial development cycle and technological innovation.It quantitatively analyses the policy content of carbon-neutral and green new policies in developed countries/regions.It reveals various countries main characteristics and development trends of carbon-neutral and green actions in.It is found that countries lay particular stress on the use of supply-oriented and environmental policy tools,while demand-oriented policies are lacking,and the tax mechanism,long-term binding force and pulling policy of their green new policy are insufficient.Most policies focus on the stage of technology development and demonstration and large-scale application,while there are few supporting policies for basic research and experiment;Carbon emission reduction technology and digital cross-technological innovation have become the focus of green new approaches in various countries,while there is a big gap in policy support for negative emission technology.It is suggested to continue to strengthen the intensity of green capital investment in the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,make appropriate use of policy tools of supply promotion,environmental support and demand-pull,and increase the application support of renewable energy,electric vehicles and other competitive clean industries.We will promote the orderly development of key future industries in the early stages,such as resource recycling,decarbonization of industrial processes,green hydrogen,zero-carbon ships and aircraft,and strengthen technological innovation in carbon reduction,negative emissions and cross-cutting fields.

关 键 词：绿色新政 政策分析 碳中和 政策工具 三维模型 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]