我国香菇出口价格波动特征分析  

Analysis of export price fluctuation characteristics of Chinese mushroom

作　　者：李锐凯 白丽[1] 张润清[1] Li Ruikai;Bai Li;Zhang Runqing(Agricultural University of Hebei,Hebei Baoding 071000)

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学,河北保定071000

出　　处：《北方经贸》2023年第10期75-78,共4页Northern Economy and Trade

基　　金：河北省食用菌产业体系研究课题(HBCT2018050301)。

摘　　要：我国是世界上的香菇生产大国及主要出口国家。文章选取2017年1月至2021年12月我国香菇出口的平均月度价格作为研究对象,采用CensusX-12季节调整法和H-P滤波法将香菇出口价格分解为4种类型:季节性特征、不规则特征、循环特征和趋势特征。研究发现,我国香菇无论是在产量还是在出口量方面均居于世界前列,因此它在未来发展中具有较强的竞争力;并且,我国香菇出口价格具有明显的季节性特征,从长期趋势来看,其出口价格呈现下降趋势。基此于,应通过研发产品新技术,提升出口产品质量以及大力推进标准化种植,打造香菇出口品牌,搭建完善的现代化信息平台等措施,不断增强我国香菇出口的国际竞争力。China is a major producer and exporter of mushroom in the world.In this paper,the average monthly price of Chinese mushroom exported to the world from January 2017 to December 2021 was taken as the research object,and the export price of mushroom was decomposed into four types by CensusX-12 seasonal adjustment method and H-P filtering method:Seasonal characteristics,irregular characteristics,cyclical characteristics and trend characteristics.Our country's mushroom industry still has strong competitiveness in the future,our country's mushroom export price has obvious seasonal characteristics,from the long-term trend,our country's mushroom export price presents a downward trend.We should develop new product technology,improve the quality of export products,promote standardization planting,build mushroom export brand and build a perfect modern information platform,and enhance Chinese mushroom export competitiveness.

关 键 词：香菇 出口价格 价格波动 CensusX-12季节调整法 H-P滤波法 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]