城市轨道交通二氧化碳排放量化及其影响因素分析  

Quantification of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Urban Rail Transit and Its Influencing Factor Analysis

作　　者：袁振洲[1] 袁晓敬 杨洋 吉祥雨[4] 吴先宇 YUAN Zhenzhou;YUAN Xiaojing;YANG Yang;JI Xiangyu;WU Xianyu(School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,100044,Beijing,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044 [2]北京航空航天大学交通科学与工程学院,北京100191 [3]北京航空航天大学车路协同与安全控制北京市重点实验室,北京100191 [4]铁科院(北京)工程咨询有限公司,北京100081

出　　处：《城市轨道交通研究》2023年第10期97-102,共6页Urban Mass Transit

基　　金：中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司科研项目(2022YJ039)。

摘　　要：目的:为了促进城市轨道交通可持续发展,需要对我国城市轨道交通二氧化碳排放演化规律及其影响因素进行量化分析。方法:基于我国社会经济发展以及城市轨道交通能耗等数据,考虑了电网碳排放因子的时空变化动态特性,构建了城市轨道交通二氧化碳排放量测算模型和LMDI(对数平均迪式指数)分解模型。以我国城轨系统为实例,对其进行二氧化碳排放量测算模型和LMDI分解模型的应用求解。结果及结论:2010—2019年研究期内,我国城轨系统二氧化碳排放量的演变总体呈上升趋势,2019年二氧化碳排放量达到1 366.20万t,较2010年增长了2.88倍。我国电网碳排放因子在交通运输业存在显著的时空差异性,体现为南方城市电网碳排放因子整体低于北方;随着电力生产结构的优化以及科技水平的提高,电网碳排放因子呈现平稳下降的趋势。经济发展因素对我国城轨系统二氧化碳排放影响效应最为显著,且体现为正效应。其他各影响因素效应值由强到弱依次为:交通运输业能源结构强度、生产效率、能源消耗强度、交通运输业发展和人口规模因素,其影响效应值分别为67.53万t、-53.82万t、12.64万t、-6.09万t和4.92万t。二氧化碳排放量测算模型和LMDI分解模型在预测城市轨道交通二氧化碳排放上是可行与科学的。Objective:In order to promote the sustainable development of URT(urban rail transit)in China,it is necessary to quantitatively analyze the evolution of CO 2(carbon dioxide)emissions in urban rail transit system and its influencing factors.Method:Based on data related to China′s socioeconomic development and energy consumption in URT,considering the dynamic characteristics of the spatiotemporal variation of grid emission factors,a model for calculating CO 2 emissions in URT and an LMDI(logarithmic mean divisia index)decomposition model are established.Using China′s URT system as example,the above models are applied and solved.Result&Conclusion:During the research period from 2010 to 2019,the overall CO 2 emissions in China′s URT system showed an upward trend.In 2019,CO 2 emissions reached 13.662 million tons,an increase of 2.88 times compared to 2010.There are significant spatiotemporal differences in grid emission factor in the transportation industry,reflecting overall lower grid emission factor in southern cities than in northern cities.With the optimization of electricity production structure and technological advancements,grid emission factor shows a steady decline.Economic development factors have the most significant impact on CO 2 emissions in China′s URT system,and they exhibit a positive effect.Other influencing factors in descending order of impact magnitude are:energy structure intensity in the transportation sector,production efficiency,energy consumption intensity,development of the transportation sector,and population scale,with impact values of 675,300 tons,-538,200 tons,126,400 tons,-60,900 tons,and 49,200 tons,respectively.The CO 2 emission calculation model and LMDI decomposition model are feasible and scientifically valid for predicting CO 2 emissions in URT.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 二氧化碳排放 影响因素 对数平均迪氏指数分解 

分 类 号：X511[环境科学与工程—环境工程]