经济增长、城镇化与碳排放:理论分析与实证检验  

Economic Growth,Urbanization,and Carbon Emissions:Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Testing

作　　者：郭嘉德 白永秀[1] 关海玲[2] GUO Jiade;BAI Yongxiu;GUAN Hailing(School of Economics and Management,Northwest University,Xian,Shaanxi 710127;School of Economics and Management,Taiyuan University of Science and Technology,Taiyuan,Shanxi 030024)

机构地区：[1]西北大学经济管理学院,陕西西安710127 [2]太原科技大学经济与管理学院,山西太原030024

出　　处：《管理现代化》2023年第5期167-175,共9页Modernization of Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(21ZDA063);陕西省教育厅青年创新团队科研计划项目(22JP091)。

摘　　要：在梳理经济增长、城镇化与碳排放相互关系的基础上,利用2010-2019年中部六省的面板数据探讨了区域经济增长率变化和城镇化的作用对碳排放的影响。结果表明:区域经济增长率变化和城镇化的共同作用与碳排放存在着显著正相关关系,但边际作用较小,三者存在长期的协整关系,且碳排放具有显著的滞后性,当只有区域经济增长率变化或城镇化的因素存在时,对碳减排是有利的,无论从经济总量还是从人均水平也符合上述结论。研究进一步厘清了区域经济增长、城镇化与碳排放的相互关系,对中部地区实现经济高质量发展、推进人与自然和谐共生的现代化具有参考价值。On the basis of sorting out the relationship between economic growth,urbanization and carbon emissions,the panel data of six central provinces from 2010 to 2019 were used to explore the impact of regional economic growth rate changes and urbanization on carbon emissions.The results show that:The joint effect of regional economic growth rate change and urbanization has a significant positive correlation with carbon emission,but the marginal effect is small,the three have a long-term cointegration relationship,and carbon emission has a significant lag.When only the change of regional economic growth rate or urbanization exists,it is beneficial to carbon emission reduction,and the above conclusion is also consistent with the economic aggregate and per capita level.The research further clarifies the interrelationship between regional economic growth,urbanization and carbon emissions,which has reference value for realizing high-quality economic development and promoting the modernization of harmonious coexistence between human and nature in the central region.

关 键 词：碳排放 全面FGLS估计法 中部六省 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学] X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]