曲线拟合法在黄土路基沉降预测中的应用  

Application of Curve Fitting Method in Settlement Prediction of Loess Subgrade

作　　者：李志雷 王伟[2] 蔡旺 LI Zhilei;WANG Wei;CAI Wang(School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;China Communications Second Navigation Engineering Bureau Co.Ltd.,Wuhan 430012,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学交通与物流工程学院,武汉430063 [2]中交第二航务工程局有限公司,武汉430012

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》2023年第5期952-955,962,共5页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）

摘　　要：文中依托甜永高速公路中TY15合同段20号桥台路桥过渡段黄土路基综合处治技术,对K254+344断面的实测数据分析,且对2号点分别采用双曲线法、指数曲线法以及对数曲线法进行了该断面的沉降预测,对比了三种模型的精度.结果表明:在0~100 d时,沉降速率很大;在100~200 d时,沉降速率逐渐减小;而在超过300 d时,沉降曲线达到基本稳定状态.3种模型都可以较为精确的预测路基的短期沉降量,结合SSE和MAPE评价指标,指数曲线模型最为精确,且预测最终沉降量为-32.63 mm.Based on the comprehensive treatment technology of loess subgrade in the transition section of No.20 abutment road and bridge in TY15 contract section of Tianyong Expressway,the measured data of K254+344 section were analyzed.In addition,the hyperbolic method,exponential curve method and logarithmic curve method were used to predict the settlement of the section at point 2,and the accuracy of the three models was compared.The results show that the sedimentation rate is very high in 0~100 d.During 100~200d,the sedimentation rate gradually decreased.When it exceeds 300d,the settlement curve reaches a basically stable state.All three models can accurately predict the short-term settlement of subgrade.Combined with SSE and MAPE evaluation indexes,the exponential curve model is the most accurate,and the final settlement is predicted to be-32.63 mm.

关 键 词：黄土路基 曲线拟合法 评价指标 沉降预测 

分 类 号：U416.1[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]