专业货运机场航空物流需求预测研究  

Research on Demand Forecast of Aviation Logistics in Professional Cargo Airports

作　　者：曹允春[1] 龚曼丽 CAO Yunchun;GONG Manli(The Center for Airport Economic Research of Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学临空经济研究中心,天津300300

出　　处：《综合运输》2023年第10期156-162,共7页China Transportation Review

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目人文社科类“新发展格局下推动现代服务业与航空制造业深度融合的机理、模式与路径”(3122021017)。

摘　　要：专业货运机场是未来航空货运的发展趋势。鄂州机场作为亚洲第一个专业货运枢纽机场,其航空物流需求将快速增长。在分析鄂州机场货源及结构的基础上,应用趋势外推法、三次指数平滑法和灰色预测法,引进shapley值法组合预测模型。采用分类预测的方法预测得到鄂州机场2025年、2030年的航空货邮吞吐量。预测结果表明组合预测模型误差远远小于单一预测模型误差。本研究对专业货运机场物流需求提供了一种有效的建模方法与预测手段,对货运机场物流需求预测具有一定的参考价值。Professional cargo airport is the development trend of air cargo in the future.As the first professional cargo hub airport in Asia,Ezhou Airport's aviation logistics demand will grow rapidly in the future.On the basis of analyzing the cargo source and structure of ezhou airport,the combination forecasting model of shapley value method is introduced by using trend extrapolation,cubic exponential smoothing and grey forecasting methods.The air cargo and mail throughput of Ezhou Airport in 2025 and 2030 is predicted by classification prediction method.The prediction results show that the error of combined prediction model is far less than that of single prediction model.This study provides an effective modeling method and forecasting means for logistics demand of professional freight airports,and has certain reference value for logistics demand forecasting of freight airports.

关 键 词：专业货运机场 组合预测 航空物流 GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：U8[交通运输工程]