复杂动态系统理论视角下二语写作发展的变异性研究  

Variability in L2 Writing Development from the Perspective of Complex Dynamic Systems Theory

作　　者：郑咏滟[1] 李慧娴 ZHENG Yongyan;LI Huixian(Fudan University)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学

出　　处：《现代外语》2023年第5期650-663,共14页Modern Foreign Languages

摘　　要：本研究基于复杂动态系统理论,采用两种变异度计算指标,对39名中级水平英语学习者一年间的写作数据进行回归分析和聚类分析,旨在探究写作发展中的变异度与写作水平提升度间的关系,从而揭示二语写作水平动态发展的内在模式。结果显示,在初始水平相同的情况下,差数标准差这一变异度指标可以显著正向预测写作水平的提升度。以初始水平、变异度和写作水平提升度为变量的聚类分析揭示了四种书面语发展模式,在高度相似的子集内部也验证了“变异预示发展”的规律。上述发现丰富了复杂动态系统理论的变异性研究。此外,本文基于研究结果,探讨了如何透过表面上繁复芜杂的发展波动数据揭示发展模式,从“遍历合集”的角度为探究个体路径和群体模式的波动搭建了接口,回答了发展过程中的遍历性问题。This study tracked the development of L2 writing of 39 intermediate-level EFL learners over one academic year.The purposes were to explore the relationship between variability and proficiency gains in L2 writing from the perspective of Complex Dynamic Systems Theory(CDST)and to reveal the inherent developmental patterns of L2 writing development.Two measures of variability were used to analyze the longitudinal written data through hierarchical regression and cluster analyses.Results revealed that the Standard Deviation of difference(SDd),a variability measure based on time-series approaches,could significantly predict proficiency gains in L2 writing holistic scores.Cluster analysis of initial conditions,SDd and proficiency gains revealed four patterns of development,confirming that variability signals change within ergodic ensembles.This study contributes to the ongoing debate on variability and addresses the ergodicity problem in L2development research.It also sheds light on how to reveal the hidden developmental patterns beyond the apparently variegated individual trajectories,thus bridging individual paths and group patterns from the perspective of ergodic ensemble.

关 键 词：复杂动态系统理论 变异性 遍历性 二语写作发展 

分 类 号：H319[语言文字—英语]