基于ARIMA模型构建某市高速公路交通事故预测模型  

Construting a highway traffic accident prediction model in a certain city based on ARIMA model

作　　者：张树林[1,2,3,4] 凤鹏飞 许佳佳[1,3] 冯忠祥 段萌萌[1,2,3] 石爽 ZHANG Shulin;FENG Pengfei;XU Jiajia;FENG Zhongxiang;DUAN Mengmeng;SHI Shuang(School of Traffic Engineering,Anhui Sanlian University,Hefei 230601,Anhui,China;National Engineering Research Center for Vehicle Driving Safety,Hefei 230081,Anhui,China;Key Laboratory of Traffic Information and Safety,Anhui Department of Education,Hefei 230601,Anhui,China;Anhui Sanlian Accident Prevention Institute,Hefei 230081,Anhui,China;School of Automotive and Transportation Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Anhui 230009,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽三联学院交通工程学院,安徽合肥230601 [2]国家车辆驾驶安全工程技术研究中心,安徽合肥230081 [3]安徽省教育厅交通信息与安全重点实验室,安徽合肥230601 [4]安徽三联事故预防研究所,安徽合肥230081 [5]合肥工业大学汽车与交通工程学院,安徽230009

出　　处：《安徽预防医学杂志》2023年第5期407-411,共5页Anhui Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：安徽省高校自然科学优秀青年科研项目(2022AH030161)。

摘　　要：目的 定量分析交通事故发展趋势,为城市交通事故精准防控提供决策支持。方法 通过采集某市2010-2020年高速公路交通事故相关数据,分析数据属性与交通事故关联度,基于ARIMA方法建立某市高速公路交通事故预测模型,结合指数回归曲线模型和灰色优化GOM模型的拟合度对比验证ARIMA模型可靠性。结果 基于离散性和随机性的交通事故时间序列数据,拟合建立的ARIMA(4,1,3)模型的预测结果精度达到94%以上,预测性能明显优于指数回归曲线模型和灰色优化GOM模型,模型有着良好可靠性与适用性。结论 基于ARIMA模型建立的交通事故预测模型对某市高速公路交通安全精细化管理具有一定的指导意义。Objective To quantitatively analyze the development trend of traffic accidents and provide decision support for precise prevention and control of urban traffic safety management.Methods By collecting data related to highway traffic accidents in a certain city from 2010 to 2020,analyzing the correlation between data attributes and traffic accidents,a pre-diction model for highway traffic accidents in a certain city was established based on the ARIMA method.The reliability of the ARIMA model was verified by comparing the fit of the exponential regression curve model and the grey optimization GOM model.Results The prediction accuracy of the ARIMA(4,1,3)model established by fitting traffic accident time se-ries data based on discreteness and randomness was over 94%,and the prediction performance was significantly better than the exponential regression curve model and the grey optimization GOM model.The model had good reliability and applicabil-ity.Conclusion The traffic accident prediction model established based on ARIMA model has certain guiding significance for the refined management of highway traffic safety in a certain city.

关 键 词：交通事故 高速公路 事故预防 ARIMA模型 指数回归模型 灰色优化GOM模型 交通工程 

分 类 号：R19[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]