2017—2022年乌鲁木齐市糖尿病死亡特征及其趋势预测分析  

Diabetes death characteristics and trend prediction analysis in Urumqi,2017-2022

作　　者：吾尔丽卡·吾斯曼 赵娥[2] 孙高峰[2] 孔馨雪 Wuerlika Wusiman;ZHAO E;SUN Gao-feng;KONG Xin-xue(School of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region 830000,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]新疆医科大学公共卫生学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830000 [2]乌鲁木齐市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防制科

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2023年第20期3795-3799,3840,共6页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2017YFC0907201);国家自然科学基金项目(U1803124);乌鲁木齐市疾控中心科研项目(SJK2021003)。

摘　　要：目的了解乌鲁木齐市常住人群糖尿病死亡特征及趋势变化,为开展科学防控疾病提供理论依据。方法乌鲁木齐市2017年1月1日至2022年12月31日的糖尿病死亡数据来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统中的人口死亡信息登记管理系统,共收集2661例死亡病例。对糖尿病死亡率、潜在减寿年(potential years of life lost,PYLL)、减寿率(potential years of life lost rate,PYLLR)、平均减寿年(average years of life lost,AYLL)、早死概率及其年均增长率,并发症构成比(顺位)进行统计分析。采用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测2023、2024、2025年糖尿病死亡率。结果2017—2022年乌鲁木齐市糖尿病死亡率在9.21/10万~16.37/10万之间波动,年均增长率为12.19%。男性死亡率年均增长率是女性的1.23倍。死亡率随年龄增大而升高,85岁以上达到高峰401.48/10万。65岁以上死亡人数占总死亡人数的76.66%。男性PYLL、PYLLR、AYLL、早死概率年均增长率均高于女性。2型糖尿病PYLL、PYLLR、早死概率年均增长率高于1型糖尿病。糖尿病肾病(17.01%)在糖尿病死亡并发症中占首位,其次是其他及未特指疾病和多个并发症疾病。预测模型结果显示,乌鲁木齐市未来三年糖尿病死亡率呈上升趋势,2025年达到18.31/10万。结论糖尿病死亡对乌鲁木齐市居民带来的疾病负担不断增加,寿命损失情况逐渐加重,应加强健康教育及健康促进,强化糖尿病防控工作,来降低糖尿病及其并发症带来的死亡风险。Objective To understand the characteristics and trends of diabetes death among the permanent population in Urumqi,and to provide a theoretical basis for the scientific prevention and control of diseases.Methods The diabetes death data in Urumqi from January 1,2017,to December 31,2022,was derived from the population death information registration management system in the Chinese Disease Control and Prevention Information System,and a total of 2661 deaths were collected.Statistical analysis of diabetes mortality,potential years of life lost(PYLL),potential years of life lost rate(PYLLR),average years of life lost(AYLL),early death probability and its average annual growth rate,complication composition ratio(in order)were carried out.The gray GM(1,1)model was used to predict the diabetes mortality rate in 2023、2024 and 2025.Results The diabetes mortality rate in Urumqi from 2017 to 2021 fluctuated between 9.21-16.37 per 100,000,with an average annual growth rate of 12.19%.The average annual growth rate of male mortality was 1.23 times that of women.The mortality rate increases with age,reaching a peak of 401.48 per 100,000 at the age of over 85.Deaths over the age of 65 accounted for 76.66%of the total number of deaths.The average annual growth rate of PYLL,PYLLR,AYLL,and early death probability in men was higher than that in women.The average annual growth rate of type 2 diabetes PYLL,PYLLR,and early death was higher than that of type 1 diabetes.Diabetic nephropathy(17.01%)accounted for the first place in diabetic mortality,followed by other and unspecified diseases and multiple complications.The forecast model results showed that the diabetes mortality rate in Urumqi will increase in the next three years,reaching 18.31 per 100,000 in 2025.Conclusion The burden of diabetes deaths on Urumqi residents is increasing,and the loss of life expectancy is gradually increasing,so health education and health promotion should be strengthened,and diabetes prevention and control should be strengthened to reduce the risk of de

关 键 词：糖尿病 死因 潜在减寿年 早死概率 GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：R587.1[医药卫生—内分泌]