基于RDD-DID方法的排污权交易政策演变的雾霾治理激励效应研究  

Study on The Incentive Effects of Evolution of EmissionTrading Policy on Haze Governance Based on theMethod of RDD-DID

作　　者：吴朝霞[1] 曾智枫 孙坤 WU Zhao-xia;ZENG Zhi-feng;SUN Kun(School of Business,Xiangtan University,Xiangtan Hunan 411105)

机构地区：[1]湘潭大学商学院,湖南湘潭411105

出　　处：《湖南财政经济学院学报》2023年第5期68-78,共11页Journal of Hunan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“绿色发展下排污权交易机制对雾霾治理的影响机理研究”(项目编号:17BJL042)、湖南省自然科学基金面上项目“‘双碳’目标下数字经济赋能湖南省绿色低碳发展的现实路径研究”(项目编号:2023JJ30604)。

摘　　要：当前我国排污权初始分配方式正处于向排污权有偿使用制度转变阶段,为了进一步评估排污权初始分配政策转变所产生的雾霾治理效果,首先利用ArcGIS10.8软件分析了我国雾霾的变化趋势,再对全国排污权交易市场建设进行系统性的概述,基于数据的可得性,利用浙江省杭州市2010—2019年的平衡面板数据,采用断点回归设计(RDD)先后分析了杭州市排污权有偿使用政策与国务院于2014年8月出台的排污权有偿使用政策所产生的雾霾治理效应。研究发现前者并未产生明显的雾霾治理效应,而后者能够显著降低杭州市的雾霾污染水平。RDD-DID估计结果表明排污权有偿使用政策所产生的雾霾治理激励效应将促使前后三个月内的雾霾浓度差值同期下降近10.5%。最后强调了中央政策与地方政策协同互促在雾霾治理过程中的重要性,为完善排污权交易体制机制与排污权交易地方监督管理体系建设提供了重要的经验证据和政策启示。At present,the initial allocation of emission rights in China is in the transition stage to the system of paid use of emission permits.In order to further evaluate the haze control effect caused by the policy transformation,This paper first uses ArcGIS10.8 software to analyze the change trend of haze in China,and then systematically summarizes the construction of the national emission trading market.Based on the availability of data,with the balanced panel data of Hangzhou,Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2019,this paper uses the regression discontinuity design(RDD)to analyze the haze control effects of the paid use policy of emission rights in Hangzhou and issued by The State Council in August 2014 respectively.The results show that the former has no significant haze control effect,while the latter can significantly reduce the haze pollution level in Hangzhou.Moreover,the estimated results of RDD-DID show that the incentive effect of haze governance induced by the policy of paid use of emission rights will make the difference of haze density before and after a three months period to be reduced by nearly 10.5%compare to the same period of the control year.This paper emphasizes the importance of coordination between central and local policies in the process of haze control,and provides important empirical evidence and policy enlightenment for improving the system mechanism of emission trading and the construction of local supervision and management system of emission trading.

关 键 词：排污权有偿使用 雾霾治理 断点回归设计 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]