无缝隙网格预报业务的决策理论适用性研究  

Study on Decision-making Theory Applicability for Seamless Grid Forecast

作　　者：贾净翔 胡文东[1,2,3] 王承伟 邵建[5] 胡亮帆 郝艳琼 徐文嘉 JIA Jingxiang;HU Wendong;WANG Chengwei;SHAO Jian;HU Liangfan;HAO Yanqiong;XU Wenjia(College of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China;Sichuan Provincial Key Laboratory of Software Auto-developing and Intelligent Service,Chengdu 610225,China;Sichuan Provincial Key Laboratory of Plateau Atmosphere and Environment,Chengdu 610225,China;Heilongjiang Provincial Meteorological Office,Harbin 150030,China;Yinchuan Meteorological Bureau,Yinchuan 750002,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川成都610225 [2]软件自动生成与智能服务四川省重点实验室,四川成都610225 [3]高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,四川成都610225 [4]黑龙江省气象台,黑龙江哈尔滨150030 [5]银川市气象局,宁夏银川750002

出　　处：《成都信息工程大学学报》2023年第5期556-565,共10页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发资助项目(2018YFC1507305);黑龙江省科技厅资助项目(YS18Z01);四川省科技厅资助项目(2018GZDZX0049、2020GFW007);软件自动生成与智能服务四川省重点实验室资助项目(2021003);中国气象局-成都信息工程大学气象软件工程联合研究中心资助项目(2021003);宁夏科技厅资助项目(2018BEG03002);中国气象局资助项目(CMAYBY2019-131)。

摘　　要：为进一步完善无缝隙网格预报工作,利用决策科学相关理论加强对预报人员的业务支持,提高智能化水平,从预报业务环境出发,根据预报员面临的任务压力,对多种决策理论进行了适用性分析,结果表明:(1)无缝隙网格预报极大提升了业务能力和水平,预报员作为业务体系核心的地位并未改变,必须通过科学技术直接加强对预报员的支持。(2)技术进步背景下当前预报员面临的业务难点已经突破了传统的范畴,更加清晰地体现为决策困难。(3)当前形势下的预报过程,对预报员来说存在具体限制性环境条件,传统的经典决策、完全决策、连续有限对比决策等理论适用性不强。(4)当前气象业务预报的特性更倾向于非理性决策、行为决策和现实渐进决策。(5)在无缝隙网格预报业务条件下,探讨了预报员有限理性的原因与表现以及知觉偏差对预报的影响。发现倾向风险更小而非结果最优,一般寻求相对满意方案。(6)在上述分析的基础上,从研究、关注、辅助、支持预报员的角度,更加突出人在预报业务体系中的核心地位,提出了无缝隙网格预报中业务决策智能支持系统的适用性决策理论,为智能网格预报后续开发工作提供理论指导,并为研究型业务的全面建立提供支持。To improve the seamless grid forecast,strengthen the operational support for forecastersusing the theory of decision science and improve the level of intelligence,the applicability of variousdecision-making theories was analyzed based on the forecast operational environment and the task pressure faced by forecasters,the results show that,(1)The seamless grid forecast improved the service greatly.The key role of human forecaster never changed up to now and it is necessary to help forecaster with science and technology.(2)Under nowadays circumstances,the major operational difficulties faced by forecaster have exceeded the traditional range,which is decision-making difficulties.(3)Some of preconditions cannot be met well for the forecasters.The theories such as classic,complete,and continuous limited decision-makings show poor feasibility under current operational situation.(4)The character of operational seamless grid forecast at present tends to be non-rational,behavior,and progressive reality decision-making.(5)The reasons of performance and perception alias of forecasters at current circumstance were analyzed,and the results show that forecasters tended to choosethe relative not-bad plan instead of the best plan.(6)In order to highlight the core position of people in the forecast operation system from the perspective of support forecasters,the feasible theories of intelligence decision-making system for seamless grid forecast were proposed based on the study and for support human forecasters.And this work provides support for the comprehensive establishment of research-oriented meteorological operations.

关 键 词：无缝隙网格预报 业务决策 智能 支持系统 适用性 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]