耕地利用变化的近远程驱动机制研究——以长江经济带为例  

Analysis of the proximity and telecoupling mechanism of cultivated land use change:A case study of Yangtze River Economic Belt

作　　者：吴常艳 陈博文 黄贤金[3] 李焕 WU Changyan;CHEN Bowen;HUANG Xianjin;LI Huan(School of Economics,Zhejiang Gongshang University,Hangzhou 310018,China;School of Public Administration,Zhejiang University of Finance&Economics,Hangzhou 310018,China;School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection,Ministry of Land and Resources,Nanjing 210023,China;School of Public Administration,Zhejiang Gongshang University,Hangzhou 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学经济学院,杭州310018 [2]浙江财经大学公共管理学院,杭州310018 [3]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,国土资源部海岸带开发与保护重点实验室,南京210023 [4]浙江工商大学公共管理学院,杭州310018

出　　处：《地理研究》2023年第11期3003-3019,共17页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(41901210);教育部人文社科一般项目(23YJCZH010);国家自然科学基金创新群体项目(71921003);江苏省碳达峰碳中和科技创新专项资金(BK2022037);浙江省自科基金杰出青年项目(LR21G030001);浙江工商大学“数字+”学科建设项目(SZJ2022C005)。

摘　　要：中国粮食生产和消费存在空间分离的非均衡性特征,研究耕地利用变化近远程驱动机制对于跨区域耕地保护具有重要意义。本文基于1990—2020年间7期LandsatTM影像解译数据,关键年份的陆路交通网络数据,社会经济统计数据,采用多区域投入产出模型定量刻画长江经济带耕地利用的变化特征。同时,构建二阶空间自回归模型,阐释不同时段耕地利用变化的近远程驱动机制。研究结果表明:①长江经济带各局地系统内耕地地类向其他地类转化,集中转化的地类有建设用地、林地和草地。②多区域投入产出结果发现黑龙江、吉林是江苏、上海、浙江、湖北等省(市)隐含耕地主要输入来源地,贵州、安徽、江西等省份是长江经济带内隐含耕地净输出最高的省份,输出地大多数在长江经济带内部,并在空间上呈现邻近性特征。③空间二阶自回归模型结果发现,2005—2020年时段,耕地利用变化存在空间近远程驱动效应,交通可达性越高的地方耕地利用变化现象越突出。近远程驱动在交通可达性3 h以内显著,超过3 h地理衰减现象突出,耕地利用变化的驱动力主要源自局地系统。④局地系统的影响因素中,土地财政和城市化始终是耕地利用变化的主要驱动力,全球化、市场化等因素存在时空异质性。最后,本文为长江经济带强化耕地保护措施提出相关的政策建议。There is an imbalanced feature of spatial separation between food production and consumption in China.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the proximity and telecoupling mechanism of cultivated land protection across regions.Based on the interpretation data of LandsatTM images of seven periods from 1990 to 2020,the terrestrial traffic network data of key years,and socio-economic statistical data,the characteristics of cultivated land use in the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)are quantitatively described using the multi-region input-output model.At the same time,a second-order spatial autoregressive model is constructed to explain the proximity and telecoupling mechanism of cultivated land use change in different periods.The research results show that:(1)the intracoupling of prefecture-level cities in the study area is manifested by the transfer of cultivated land to construction land,forest land and grassland.(2)Multi-regional input-output results show that Heilongjiang and Jilin are the main sources of input of embodied cultivated land in Jiangsu,Shanghai,Zhejiang,and Hubei,while Guizhou,Anhui,and Jiangxi have the highest net output within the YREB.Furthermore,the most of the output have occurred within the YREB and presented spatial proximity features.(3)The results of the spatial second-order autoregressive model show that there is a intercoupling and telecoupling effect in the change of cultivated land during the period of 2005-2020.The higher the traffic accessibility is,the more prominent the phenomenon of changes in cultivated land.Moreover,the proximity and telecoupling drivers are significant within 3 hours of accessibility,and the geographical attenuation phenomenon is prominent beyond 3 hours.The driving force of cultivated land use change mainly comes from the local system.(4)Among the influencing factors of the local system,land finance and urbanization rate have always been the main driving forces of cultivated land use change,and factors such as globalization and marketization have spat

关 键 词：耕地保护 交通可达性 耕地近远程利用 空间计量 长江经济带 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济]