需求导向的高校专任教师供给优化研究:面向2035的预测  

Research on Demand-Oriented Supply Optimization of Full-TimeUniversity Teachers: A Prediction Toward 2035

作　　者：辜刘建 王传毅[1,2] GU Liujian;WANG Chuanyi(Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084)

机构地区：[1]清华大学教育研究院,北京100084 [2]教育部-清华大学教育战略决策与国家规划研究中心,北京100084

出　　处：《中国高教研究》2023年第11期79-87,共9页China Higher Education Research

摘　　要：高校专任教师规模是教师队伍建设的重要任务,对推进教育强国、科技强国和人才强国战略具有重要意义。面向2035年预测全国、分区域、分学科高校专任教师供需量,研判高校专任教师的供需形势。研究发现,全国高校专任教师需求量稳步扩大,但供给能力却相对乏力,到2035年将面临约48万名专任教师的供需缺口。高等教育在学规模大、教师供给能力弱的省份和学科在2035年将面临更严峻的供需矛盾。教育主管部门需整合各类人才项目,增强高校专任教师供给能力,缓解供需矛盾;通过加大区域高校专任教师统筹布局力度,加快国家亟需领域学科师资供给来优化高校专任教师区域与学科布局结构。The scale of full-time university teachers is the important task of the construction of teachers’team,which is of great significance to build China’s strength in education,science and technology,and talent.A model for the supply and demand of scale was applied to predict the demand and supply of full-time university teachers across the whole country,as well as by regions and disciplines in 2035,so as to judge the corresponding supply and demand situation.The study found that the demand for full-time university teachers across the country will steadily expand,but the supply capacity is relatively weak.By 2035,there will be a discrepancy between supply and demand of about 480000 full-time teachers.Provinces and disciplines with large scale of higher education and weak supply capacity of teachers will face more severe contradiction between supply and demand.To this end,the education authorities need to integrate various talent projects,strengthen the supply capacity of teachers,and alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of university teachers nationwide by 2035;it is also needed to optimize the regional and disciplinary structure of university teachers by increasing the overall layout of regional university teachers and accelerating the supply of teachers in disciplines that meet the country’s urgent needs.

关 键 词：高校专任教师 供需分析 供给优化 分区域 分学科 

分 类 号：G645.1[文化科学—高等教育学]