“双碳”目标下的宏观经济稳定与减排措施研究  

Macroeconomic Stability and Emission Abatement Measures under theObjectives of“Carbon Peaking”and “Carbon Neutrality”

作　　者：肖祖沔 彭红枫 尹智超 王文浩 Xiao Zumian;Peng Hongfeng;Yin Zhichao;Wang Wenhao(School of Finance,Shandong University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学金融学院,250002

出　　处：《经济评论》2023年第5期17-33,共17页Economic Review

基　　金：山东省社会科学基金青年项目“‘双循环’背景下山东产业链稳定性及竞争力提升研究”(批准号:21DJJJ02)的支持。

摘　　要：本文在动态随机一般均衡框架中刻画了大气碳存量积累的动态过程以及碳排放对企业生产和家庭效用产生的负外部性,并通过对宏观变量动态和经济福利的分析探讨了碳减排措施的选择。模型稳态的比较静态分析显示,主要宏观经济变量稳态值在实施碳减排措施后产生了负向偏离。福利分析结果表明,碳减排所减少的环境负外部性能够提高整体经济福利水平,且碳排放权交易能够比碳排放税带来更大的福利增益。同时,脉冲响应结果显示,相较于征收碳排放税,实施碳排放权交易时,相同的外生冲击造成的宏观经济波动更小。因此,我国推进“双碳”战略,需要重视碳排放权交易机制建设与优化,实现短期中碳减排引致经济发展承压与长期中经济福利提升的平衡。This article delineates the dynamics of atmospheric carbon stock accumulation within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework.It also examines the negative externalities carbon emissions impose on firm production and household utility.By analyzing the dynamics of macroeconomic variables and economic welfare,this study investigates the choices in emission reduction measures.Comparative static analysis of the model's steady state reveals that the primary macroeconomic variables'steady-state values deviate negatively after implementing emission reduction measures.Welfare analysis indicates that the reduction of environmental negative externalities due to carbon mitigation enhances the overall economic welfare level.Moreover,carbon emissions trading offers a more substantial welfare gain than the imposition of a carbon tax.Additionally,impulse response results show that the macroeconomic fluctuations resulting from the same exogenous shocks are smaller under carbon emissions trading compared to the carbon tax.Therefore,as China advances its“dual carbon”strategy,it is imperative to emphasize the construction and optimization of the carbon emissions trading mechanism,striking a balance between the short-term economic pressures caused by carbon reduction and the long-term enhancement of economic welfare.

关 键 词：碳排放税 碳排放权交易 经济福利 动态随机一般均衡 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]