基于可靠性分析的北京市快速路运行状况评价  

Evaluation of the Operation of Beijing Expressway Based on Reliability Analysis

作　　者：高爱霞[1] GAO Aixia(Beijing Police College,Beijing 102202,China)

机构地区：[1]北京警察学院,北京102202

出　　处：《交通工程》2023年第6期50-54,共5页Journal of Transportation Engineering

基　　金：校局合作项目(2022KXJ13).

摘　　要：可靠性作为概率性的测度参数,能有效地评价交通系统的稳定性,目前该参数已被纳入2010版美国道路通行能力手册.首先介绍了行程时间可靠性的主要指标计划时间指数(PTI)和行程时间指数(TTI),分析了基于微波数据的计算方法;利用北京市南四环快速路的实际数据,计算了双向全天24 h的PTI和TTI,晚高峰时段由东向西方向的PTI和TTI最高,分别为2.39和1.70,表明该方向此时的可靠性最低;通过对比去除恶劣天气后与混合条件下的PTI和TTI,探讨恶劣天气对行程时间可靠性的影响,结果表明恶劣天气使得PTI最大增加0.38,TTI最大增加0.22.As a probabilistic parameter,reliability can effectively evaluate the stability of the transportation system.At present,this parameter has been included in the 2010 U.S.Highway Capacity Manual.The main indexes of travel time reliability,planning time indeX(PTI)and travel time indeX(TTI),are introduced,and the method based on microwave data are analyzed;Using the actual data of the South Fourth Ring Road in Beijing,the two-way 24-hour PTI and TTI are calculated.The results show that the PTI and TTI in the eastbound are the highest in the PM peak hours,which are 2.39 and 1.70 respectively,indicating that the reliability in this direction is the lowest at this time;By comparing PTI and TTI excluding severe weather with mixed conditions,the impact of severe weather on travel time reliability is discussed.Severe weather makes PTI increase by 0.38 and TTI increase by 0.22 at most.

关 键 词：行程时间可靠性 计划时间指数 行程时间指数 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]