基于集合模拟的汉江上游洪水与滑坡灾害风险评估  

Assessment of flood and landslide hazard risk based on ensemble simulation over upstream of the Han River

作　　者：王晟 张珂 晁丽君[1,3,4] 陈国鼎 夏怡[1,3] 包红军 张春堂 WANG Sheng;ZHANG Ke;CHAO Lijun;CHEN Guoding;XIA Yi;BAO Hongjun;ZHANG Chuntang(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development,Hohai vniversity,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;China Meteorological Administration Hydro-Meteorology Key Laboratory,Nanjing 210098,China;National Meteorological Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学长江保护与绿色发展研究院,江苏南京210098 [3]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [4]中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室,江苏南京210098 [5]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《水资源保护》2023年第6期70-76,共7页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(522031511);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(B220202029)。

摘　　要：采用基于拉丁超立方抽样的集合模拟方法,分析了汉江上游区域洪水与滑坡灾害的危险性,并利用层次分析法计算了6种承灾因子的综合易损度,进而对区域内洪水与滑坡灾害的风险进行了评估。结果表明:集合模拟得到的洪水流量过程与实测流量过程的相关系数为0.66~0.69,滑坡模拟的全局精度为0.80~0.95;大部分区域洪水灾害危险度较低,其中极低危险区占94.63%,高危险区以上占0.18%,但滑坡灾害危险度高,高危险区以上占比达到了7.21%;超过80%的区域综合易损度较低,综合易损度等级与人类活动密切相关;洪水灾害风险整体偏低,高风险以上区域占0.1%,滑坡灾害高风险区集中于西南和东部,灾害综合风险空间分布与滑坡灾害风险较为相似。Based on the set simulation method using Latin hypercube sampling,the risk of flood and landslide disasters in the upper reaches of the Han River region was analyzed,and the comprehensive vulnerability of six disaster bearing factors was calculated using the analytic hierarchy process.The risk of flood and landslide disasters in the region was then evaluated.The results show that the correlation coefficient between the flood flow process obtained from ensemble simulation and the measured flow process is 0.66 to 0.69,and the global accuracy of landslide simulation is 0.80 to 0.95.The risk of flood disasters is relatively low in most areas,with extremely low risk areas accounting for 94.63%and high risk areas accounting for 0.18%.However,the risk of landslide disasters is high,with a proportion of 7.21%above high risk areas.More than 80%of regions have low comprehensive vulnerability levels,which are closely related to human activities.The overall risk of flood disasters is relatively low,with areas above high risk accounting for 0.1%.High risk areas of landslide disasters are concentrated in the southwest and east,and the spatial distribution of comprehensive disaster risk is relatively similar to that of landslide disasters.

关 键 词：洪水灾害 滑坡灾害 集合模拟 综合易损度 汉江上游 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]