重特大交通事故致因分析方法研究  

Research on Analysis Method of Major Traffic Accidents Causes

作　　者：张键源 马社强 ZHANG Jianyuan;MA Sheqiang(School of Traffic Management,People's Public Security University of China,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民公安大学交通管理学院,北京100038

出　　处：《中国人民公安大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第3期45-51,共7页Journal of People’s Public Security University of China(Science and Technology)

基　　金：2022年中国人民公安大学校级科研项目(2022SJKJS06)。

摘　　要：为了探究重特大道路交通事故各致因因素的重要性及各因素之间的相互影响,提出一种基于HFACS改进的DTEL-HFACS法对事故致因进行分析,将事故致因框架分为4个层级,并计算各致因因素相互影响,辨识出关键因素。为了验证所提出方法的有效性,以云南省临沧市“3·02”重大道路交通事故开展实例分析。结果表明:工作流程监督不足、安全管理制度缺失、驾驶员管理等12个原因因素属于导致“3·02”重大交通事故的高效力因素。而超速驾驶、超载等12个结果因素属于导致事故的直接因素,缺乏安全主体责任、缺乏企业安全氛围等因素中心度较高,在事故中起着重要作用,研究结果可为重特大道路交通事故防控体系构建提供参考。To investigate the importance of the causal factors in major road traffic accidents and their mutual influence,a DTE L-HFACS method based on HFACS improvement was proposed to analyze the causal factors of accidents.The accident causative framework was divided into four levels,and the interaction of each factor was calculated to identify the key factors.In order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method,a case study was conducted in the major road traffic accident of“3·02”in Lincang City,Yunnan Province.The results showed that 12 causal factors,such as insufficient supervision of workflow,lack of safety management system,and driver management,were highly effective factors leading to the major traffic accident of“3·02”.The 12 factors,such as speeding and overloading,were the direct factors for the major traffic accident.The lack of safety main responsibility,lack of enterprise safety atmosphere and other factors had a high degree of centrality and played an important role in the major accident.The results could provide reference for the construction of prevention and control system of major road traffic accidents.

关 键 词：交通安全 重特大交通事故 致因分析 HFACS DEMATEL 

分 类 号：D631.5[政治法律—政治学]