进退之间:流动人口的城市居留决策研究——兼析城市房价与公共服务水平等多重因素影响效应  

Stay or Return: Analysis of Residence Decision-making of Migrant Population--Analyzing the Effects of Multiple Factors Such as Housing Prices and Public Service Levels

作　　者：付扬军 曲卫东[1] FU Yangjun;QU Weidong

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2023年第7期131-135,共5页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“中国房地产税制改革方案及模拟研究”(18BJY223)。

摘　　要：流动人口在迁入地城市能否“留得下”将成为未来新型城镇化建设的重要内容。通过构建流动人口居留决策的理论模型,将微观个体数据和城市宏观数据相匹配,从住房价格和公共服务的视角探讨流动人口的居留决策问题。研究发现:城市房价对流动人口有明显的挤出效应,房价上涨会显著降低流动人口居留意愿;而流动人口所能享受到的公共服务会显著增加其居留意愿,具有明显的拉力作用。此外,农村土地权益也会影响流动人口在所在地的居留意愿。住房价格和公共服务对流动人口居留意愿的影响在流动范围、住房性质、代际差异、受教育水平以及城市规模、城市区位等方面具有异质特征。基于此,应加快住房租赁市场法制化、规范化建设;优化公共服务布局,提高公共服务供给的可及性等,提升流动人口城市定居意愿。Whether the migrant population can “stay” in the city where they move in will become an important element in the construction of new urbanization in the future. By constructing a theoretical model of the migrant population 's residence decision, matching micro-individual data with macro-data of the city, the study explores the migrant population 's residence decision from the perspectives of housing prices and public services. It is found that urban housing prices have an obvious crowding-out effect on the migrant population,and the increase in housing prices will significantly reduce the migrant population 's willingness to stay;while the public services that the migrant population can enjoy will significantly increase their willingness to stay, with an obvious pulling effect. In addition, rural land rights and interests also affect the willingness of the migrant population to stay in the location. The effects of housing prices and public services on the willingness to stay of the floating population are heterogeneous in terms of the scope of mobility, the nature of housing, generational differ-ences, level of education, as well as the size of the city and its location. For this reason, the legalization and standardization of the housing rental market should be accelerated;the layout of public services should be optimized, and the accessibility of public service provision should be improved, so as to enhance the willingness of the floating population to settle in cities.

关 键 词：房价 公共服务 流动人口 居留意愿 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] F299.23