中国省域能源消费二氧化碳排放状态分析与情景预测  

Analysis on the Status and Scenario Forecast of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China’s Provincial Energy Consumption

作　　者：张雪梅[1] 曹丹丹 王鑫 杨秀平[1] ZHANG Xuemei;CAO Dandan;WANG Xin;YANG Xiuping(School of Economics and Management,Lanzhou University of Technology,Lanzhou Gansu 730050,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州理工大学经济管理学院,甘肃兰州730050

出　　处：《生态经济》2023年第12期26-32,共7页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“我国气候变化政策与制造业绿色转型研究”(72063023);甘肃省自然科学基金项目“生态文明视野下的甘肃省绿色竞争力评价与空间分异研究”(20JR5RA474)。

摘　　要：各省份积极贯彻落实碳达峰行动,有条件的地区率先达峰是我国实现2030年前碳达峰目标的关键。构建CO_(2)排放状态定量判断模型分析省域碳排放状态,并运用支持向量机多情景预测2019—2035年27个省份的能源消费碳排放量与碳达峰时间。能源“双控”指标将27个省份分为高消费高强度、高消费低强度、低消费低强度与低消费高强度的四个区域,分析每个区域的碳达峰与能源“双控”指标的关系。研究结果显示:(1)将“碳达峰”看作一个过程,目前我国6个省份处于下降期,4个平台期与17个上升期;(2)在低碳情景下各省份的碳排放水平最低,碳达峰进展最顺利,21个省份将在2030年前实现碳达峰。(3)从整体上看高消费高强度与低消费低强度区域能源“双控”进展更顺利,高消费低强度与低消费低强度区域“碳达峰”进程更快。能源“双控”与控制碳排放增长密切相关。为此,针对不同区域的能源“双控”进展与碳排放状态提出参考建议。All provinces are implementing the carbon peaking action,and regions with conditions are the first to reach the peak,which is the key to China’s achievement of the carbon peaking target by 2030.A quantitative judgment model of CO_(2)emission status was constructed to analyze the provincial carbon emission status,and the support vector machine multiscenario was used to predict the carbon emission amount and carbon peak time of energy consumption in 27 provinces from 2019 to 2035.According to the energy“dual control”indicator,the 27 provinces are divided into four regions with high consumption and high intensity,high consumption and low intensity,low consumption and low intensity,and low consumption and high intensity.We analyze the relationship between carbon peaking in each region and energy“dual control”.Research shows:Taking“carbon peaking”as a process,currently 6 provinces are in a declining period,4 plateau periods and 17 rising periods;(2)Under the low-carbon scenario,carbon emission level of each province is the lowest,and carbon peaking progress is the most smooth,21 provinces will achieve carbon peaking before 2030.(3)On the whole,the“dual control”of energy in high-consumption and high-intensity,low-consumption and low-intensity regions is progressing more smoothly,and the process of“carbon peaking”in high-consumption and low-intensity,low-consumption and low-intensity regions is faster.Energy“dual control”is closely related to controlling the increase in carbon emissions.To this end,reference suggestions are put forward for the progress of energy“dual control”and carbon emission status in different regions.

关 键 词：碳达峰 CO_(2)排放 支持向量机 情景预测 能源“双控” 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]