ZJU指数对新疆维吾尔自治区农村地区维吾尔族人群非酒精性脂肪性肝病发生风险的预测价值  

ZJU index and the risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in the Uygur population in the rural area of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region:A cohort study

作　　者：程萧 王甲嘉 杨婧 白蓉[1,2] 张示杰 张宏伟 吴向未[2,3] 马儒林 张向辉[1] 郭恒 郭淑霞[1] 彭心宇[2,3] CHENG Xiao;WANG Jiajia;YANG Jing;BAI Rong;ZHANG Shijie;ZHANG Hongwei;WU Xiangwei;MA Rulin;ZHANG Xianghui;GUO Heng;GUO Shuxia;PENG Xinyu(Shihezi University School of Medicine,Shihezi,Xinjiang 832000,China;NHC Key Laboratory of Prevention and Treatment of Central Asia High Incidence Diseases,Shihezi,Xinjiang 832000,China;Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery,The First Affiliated Hospital of Shihezi University School of Medicine,Shihezi,Xinjiang 832000,China)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学医学院,新疆石河子832000 [2]国家卫生健康委中亚高发病防治重点实验室,新疆石河子832000 [3]石河子大学医学院第一附属医院肝胆外科,新疆石河子832000

出　　处：《临床肝胆病杂志》2023年第11期2588-2595,共8页Journal of Clinical Hepatology

基　　金：新疆生产建设兵团科技重点项目(2018AB022)。

摘　　要：目的探讨ZJU指数与维吾尔族NAFLD发病的关联性及其对NAFLD发生风险的预测价值。方法选择新疆喀什地区兵团第三师51团维吾尔族聚集区为调查现场,研究对象为在当地居住且年龄>18岁的维吾尔族居民。分别在2019、2020和2021年进行随访,2021年6月—8月完成结局调查;最终共纳入研究对象10597名。连续变量组间比较采用Kruskal-Wallis H检验;分类变量采用χ^(2)检验。根据ZJU指数水平将研究对象分为4组(Q1~Q4组),采用Kaplan-Meier曲线计算NAFLD事件的发生率,采用Cox回归模型分析ZJU指数与NAFLD发病风险的关联;采用受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)评估ZJU指数对NAFLD发生风险的预测价值。结果在4.92年的中位随访期间,研究人群NAFLD发病率为9.4%(992/10597)。经多因素调整后,随着ZJU指数的升高,NAFLD发生风险HR(95%CI)值分别为2.55(1.60~4.06)、7.32(4.78~11.20)、21.74(14.32~33.00),呈明显上升趋势(P_(趋势值)<0.001)。ROC曲线结果显示,ZJU指数预测NAFLD效果更好(AUC=0.816),男性亚组ZJU指数AUC(0.829)高于女性AUC(0.809)。结论ZJU指数是新疆维吾尔自治区农村地区维吾尔族NAFLD发生的预测因子,对NAFLD发病风险具有良好的预测价值。Objective To investigate the association between ZJU index and the onset of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)in the Uygur population and the value of ZJU index in predicting the risk of NAFLD.Methods The Uighur community of The 51st Regiment of The Third Division of Xinjiang Kashgar Corps was selected as the investigation site,and the Uygur residents who lived in this area and had an age of>18 years were selected as subjects.Follow-up studies were conducted in 2019,2020,and 2021,and the investigation of outcomes was completed in June to August of 2021.Finally 10597 subjects were enrolled for analysis.The Kruskal-Wallis H test was used for comparison of continuous variables between groups,and the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical variables between groups.The subjects were divided into Q1-Q4 groups according to the level of ZJU index.The Kaplan-Meier curve was used to predict the incidence rate of NAFLD,and the Cox regression model was used to analyze the association between ZJU index and the risk of NAFLD;the area under the ROC curve(AUC)was used to evaluate the value of ZJU index in predicting the risk of NAFLD.Results During the median follow-up time of 4.92 years,the incidence rate of NAFLD was 9.4%(992/10597)among the study population.After adjustment for multiple factors,there was a significant increase in the risk of NAFLD with the increase in ZJU index,with a hazard ratio of 2.55(95%confidence interval[CI]:1.60-4.06),7.32(95%CI:4.78-11.20),and 21.74(95%CI:14.32-33.00),respectively(all P_(trend)<0.001).The ROC curve showed that ZJU index had a higher value in predicting NAFLD(AUC=0.816),and the male subgroup had a significantly higher predictive accuracy of ZJU index than the female subgroup(AUC:0.829 vs 0.809).Conclusion ZJU index is a predictive factor for the onset of NAFLD in the Uygur population in rural areas of Xinjiang and has a good value in predicting the risk of NAFLD.

关 键 词：非酒精性脂肪性肝病 预测 新疆维吾尔自治区 

分 类 号：R575.5[医药卫生—消化系统]