我国地方政府债务风险测度、区域差距及分布动态  

Debt Risk Measurement,Regional Disparity,and Distribution Dynamics of China’s Local Governments

作　　者：李程 赵千淇 LI Cheng;ZHAO Qianqi(School of Economics and Management,Tiangong University,Tianjin 300387;Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School,Shenzhen Guangdong 518055)

机构地区：[1]天津工业大学经济与管理学院,天津300387 [2]清华大学深圳国际研究生院,广东深圳518055

出　　处：《江汉学术》2023年第6期43-55,共13页JIANGHAN ACADEMIC

基　　金：教育部人文后期资助项目“资产负债表关联与风险溢出双重视角下的政府杠杆率结构性优化研究”(21JHQ068)。

摘　　要：利用地方政府债券的信用利差、债券利率等数据,基于无套利法的原理,可计算出全国31个省份在2015—2020年的违约概率,再利用Dagum基尼系数及分解方法和核密度估计法对地方政府债务风险的地区差距进行实证分析。研究结果表明:2015—2020年间,我国地方政府债务风险总体上呈现倒U型的变化趋势,各区域债务风险差距逐渐缩小,同时,地方政府债务风险区域差异主要来源于区域间债务风险交叉重叠的影响。东部区域内部各个省份间的债务风险差距波动最大,中部差距逐渐缩小,西部差距则基本不变。结论既反映出财政分权、官员晋升激励、城镇化、预算软约束、土地财政和税收的作用结果以及区域协调、要素流动的影响,也体现出区域间的风险溢出效应较大以及债券定价和配置上的不合理性。政策上,在国内大循环视角下要重视不同区域内和区域间债务风险差距的特征,促进政府债券市场化定价,对欠发达地区增加债务额度的配置,同时加强不同区域间的协同治理。By the no-arbitrage approach,the default probabilities of China’s 31 provinces in the 2015—2020 period are calculated based on the credit spreads and bond rates of the local government bonds.By the Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition method and the kernel density estimation method,the regional disparities of local governments’debt risks are empirically analyzed.The results are as follows:in the designated period,the overall local governments’debt risks present an inverted U shape trend,with the regional debt risk gap gradually narrowing;the source of the regional disparity of local governments’debt risks is the cross and overlap of regional debt risks;and that the debt risk gap among provinces in the eastern region fluctuates the most,the gap in the central region gradually narrows,and the gap in the western region remains basically unchanged.The findings reflect not only the effects of fiscal decentralization,official promotion incentives,urbanization,soft budget constraints,land finance and taxation,but also the influence of regional coordination and factor flow;they also disclose the large interregional risk spillover effect and the irrational pricing and allocation of bonds.In terms of policy,from the perspective of domestic great circulation,attention should be paid to the characteristics of debt risk gap within and between different regions,the market-oriented pricing of government bonds should be promoted,the allocation of debt quotas for less developed regions should be increased,and the collaborative governance between different regions should be strengthened.

关 键 词：地方政府债务风险 违约概率 Dagum基尼系数 财政分权 官员晋升激励 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]