“三孩”政策下2021—2050年我国城乡学前教育资源配置研究  

Research on the Resource Allocation of Preschool Education in Urban and Rural Areas of China from 2021 to 2050 under the Three-child Policy

作　　者：黄宸[1] 李玲[1] Huang Chen;Li Ling(Faculty of Education,Southwest University,Chongqing 400799,China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学教育学部,重庆400799

出　　处：《华东师范大学学报（教育科学版）》2023年第12期113-126,共14页Journal of East China Normal University:Educational Sciences

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“西部脱贫地区儿童早期教育服务供给风险评估与预警研究”(23YJC880040)。

摘　　要：使用Leslie矩阵建立人口预测模型,基于人口普查数据和生育意愿抽样调查,预测“三孩”政策下2021—2050年我国城乡常住学前教育适龄人口和在园幼儿规模以及园所、师资和经费供给规模。预测结果表明,到2035年,提高资源配置标准后,较2020年,需新建园所4.07万所,补充专任教师107.55万人、保育员90.92万人,新增学前教育经费总支出3652.11亿元。建议动态监测学龄人口变动情况,提前规划和科学布局学前教育资源;考虑城镇化进程、乡村振兴战略、新冠疫情影响,结合“三孩”生育政策实施和地方实际,及时修订和调整城乡居住社区人口配套学位;开展城镇小区配套园治理“回头看”;在办园难度大的偏远农村,由政府兜底举办公办园;探索事业编制统筹调剂制度,缓解学前编制短缺压力;实施编内编外同工同酬,增加教师从业年限补贴;加大省市级统筹力度,提高学前教育财政投入责任主体层级。Leslie matrix was used to establish a population prediction model.Based on the census data and a sampling survey of fertility intention,the population of urban and rural permanent residents of preschool education and the size of children in kindergartens,as well as the size of kindergartens,teachers,and total expenditure on preschool education in 2021-2050 were predicted.The results show that by 2035,after raising resource allocation standards,compared with 2020,40,700 kindergartens will be built,while 1,0755,500 full-time teachers will be added and 909,200 child-care workers will be added,with an additional total expenditure of 365.211 billion yuan for preschool education.It is suggested to dynamically monitor the changes of school-aged population,scientifically distribute preschool education resources in advance,timely revise and adjust the supporting enrollment spaces of the residential population in urban and rural communities based on the consideration of urbanization process,rural revitalization strategy,COVID-19,implementation of the three-child policy and local realities,carry out follow-up inspection on the governance of supporting gardens in urban communities,construct supporting kindergartens in strict accordance with the standards,set up public kindergartens in remote rural areas where it is difficult to run kindergartens,explore the system of overall planning and adjustment of staffing to alleviate the pressure of shortage of preschool staffing,implement equal pay for equal work for irregular teachers,increase the teachers’subsidies for working years,and strengthen provincial and municipal overall planning and improve the level of subjects guaranteeing financial investment in preschool education.

关 键 词：“三孩”政策 学前教育 城乡资源配置 人口预测 

分 类 号：G619.2[文化科学—学前教育学]