考虑破坏深度和发电保证率的水风光互补调度规则研究  

Hydro-wind-solar Complementary Operation Rules Considering System Reliability and Extreme Failure

作　　者：景含 陈翔[2] 孟洪文 刘本希[1] JING Han;CHEN Xiang;MENG Hongwen;LIU Benxi(Department of Hydraulic Engineering Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China;Comprehensive Technology Center of Peal River Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resouces,Guangzhou 510611,China;Yunnan Datang International Lixianjiang Hydropower Co.,Ltd.,Puer 665000,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学水利工程学院,辽宁大连116024 [2]水利部珠江水利委员会珠江水利综合技术中心,广东广州510611 [3]云南大唐国际李仙江流域水电开发有限公司,云南普洱665000

出　　处：《人民珠江》2023年第11期31-40,共10页Pearl River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51709035)。

摘　　要：清洁能源出力的不确定性以及极端气候条件下的脆弱性对电网运行安全的影响越来越突出,提出了同时考虑发电保证率和出力破坏深度的水风光长期互补调度规则生成方法。该方法以发电量最大为目标,考虑水风光联合出力保证率和出力破坏深度,采用混合整数非线性规划方法对水风光进行长时间序列模拟联合调度。在此基础上,采用灰色关联方法筛选输入因子,以各水电站出力作为输出,应用BP神经网络生成水风光互补调度规则。最后,通过实例分析验证了所提模型的有效性,并通过不同风光装机规模、是否考虑破坏深度相关场景模拟分析进一步论证了所提模型的优越性。The uncertainty of renewable energy output and the vulnerability under extreme weather conditions have become more and more prominent in the safety of power grid operation.The study proposes a long-term complementary operation rule generation method for hydro-wind-solar power that considers both the guaranteed rate of power generation and the extreme failure.Considering the joint output guarantee rate and the extreme failure of the hydro-wind-solar system,the method takes the maximum power generation as the goal.It uses the mixed-integer nonlinear program to carry out long-term sequence simulation joint operation of hydropower,wind power,and solar power.On this basis,the grey relation analysis is applied to screen the input factors.With the output of each hydropower station as that of the network,the BP neural network is adopted to generate the hydro-wind-solar complementary operation rules.Finally,the validity of the proposed model is verified through case analysis.The superiority of the proposed model is further demonstrated through the simulation analysis of scenarios related to different wind and solar installed capacities and extreme failure.

关 键 词：水风光互补 人工神经网络 调度规则 破坏深度 

分 类 号：TV74[水利工程—水利水电工程]