“双碳”目标下的金融摩擦与宏观审慎政策效应  

The Effect of Financial Friction and Macroprudential Policy under the“Dual Carbon”Goal

作　　者：车树林 石奇[1] CHE Shulin;SHI Qi(School of Economics,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学经济学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2023年第6期14-28,共15页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“创新引领发展的机制与对策研究”(18ZDA102);国家社会科学基金青年项目“全球价值链视角下数字创意产业高端化发展的实现路径与培育机制研究”(20CH193)。

摘　　要：碳达峰和碳中和是一场广泛而深刻的经济社会系统性变革,仅靠碳交易政策很难保证这一目标的实现,开征碳税是大势所趋。为此,构建环境—动态随机一般均衡(E-DSGE)模型,模拟分析“双碳”目标下碳税政策和宏观审慎政策对中国宏观经济的影响效应和作用机制,并对不同政策冲击下的异质性福利损失进行估计。研究发现:第一,碳税政策有助于中国实现低碳转型,但会伴随一定的过渡风险,短期内出现政策性衰退。相较于永久性碳税政策,渐进式碳税政策更加有效,有助于缓解碳税政策冲击造成的负面影响。第二,在金融加速器效应下,金融摩擦会明显放大碳税政策对宏观经济的负面影响,通过引入逆周期资本充足率或动态存款准备金率宏观审慎政策规制,可以有效解决金融摩擦问题,但仅靠宏观审慎政策在解决气候外部性方面表现不佳,无法保证“双碳”目标的实现。第三,通过将碳税政策和宏观审慎政策同时纳入政策工具箱,尤其是采用“渐进式碳税政策+逆周期资本充足率宏观审慎政策”这种政策搭配设计,不但减排效果显著,还可以明显降低过渡风险,稳定经济增长,提高居民福利。因此,中国应力争在“十四五”期间推出从碳排放源头征收的碳排放税,并考虑纳入逆周期资本充足率或动态存款准备金率宏观审慎政策规制,助力“双碳”目标顺利实现。As the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases and the second-largest economy,China’s attitude to tackling climate change is attracting growing international attention.Achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality necessitates a profound and extensive shift in both economic and social systems.It is difficult to ensure the realization of this goal only by carbon emission trading policies,and the introduction of carbon taxes is bound to be the general trend.This paper presents an environment dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(E-DSGE)model to simulate and analyze the effects and mechanisms of carbon tax and macroprudential policy on China’s macroeconomy in the context of“dual carbon”goal.It also estimates varied welfare losses under different policy shocks.Our research reveals the following key findings:First,carbon tax policies can facilitate China’s low-carbon transformation but may entail short-term risks,potentially causing policy-induced recessions.Progressive carbon tax policies prove to be more effective compared to permanent carbon tax policies,mitigating adverse impacts.Second,the financial accelerator effect amplifies the negative impacts of carbon tax policies on the macroeconomy due to financial friction.Implementing counter-cyclical capital adequacy ratio or dynamic deposit reserve ratio macroprudential policies effectively address this issue.However,relying solely on macroprudential policies to mitigate climate externalities proves inadequate in achieving the goals.Third,employing a policy mix that incorporates both carbon tax and macroprudential policy,especially utilizing a combination of“progressive carbon tax policy+counter-cyclical capital adequacy ratio macroprudential policy”,significantly reduces excessive risks while achieving substantial emission reductions,stabilizing economic growth,and enhancing residents’welfare.In comparison to existing literature,this article makes three primary contributions.First,in terms of methodology,we construct an E-DSGE model,integrati

关 键 词：“双碳”目标 碳税政策 金融摩擦 宏观审慎政策 福利损失 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F832[经济管理—金融学] F124.5