数字经济对贸易出口的空间溢出与非线性效应——基于半参数门限空间模型的实证分析  

Spatial Spillover and Nonlinear Effect of Digital Economy on Trade Export:An Empirical Analysis Based on a Semiparametric Threshold Spatial Model

作　　者：张源野 叶阿忠 Zhang Yuanye;Ye Azhong(School of Economics and Management,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou,Fujian,350108)

机构地区：[1]福州大学经济与管理学院,福建福州350108

出　　处：《福州大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2023年第6期20-35,170,共17页Journal of Fuzhou University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“半参数门限空间滞后模型理论研究及其应用”(72073030)。

摘　　要：数字经济是经济发展的新引擎,是我国出口保持稳定增长的新动能。基于我国262个地级市的面板数据,实证分析数字经济发展对贸易出口的影响,结果表明:我国数字经济发展存在显著的空间正相关性,但其聚集特征正在不断减弱,数字经济的影响力由沿海向内陆渗透;数字经济发展显著促进了贸易出口的增长,且这一促进作用存在先增大后减小的非线性特征;数字经济对贸易出口有正向非对称的空间溢出效应,数字发达城市受到的空间溢出效应要显著大于数字欠发达城市;东部地区存在非对称空间溢出效应,中、西部地区则不存在,且三大地区数字经济对贸易出口的非线性特征各有不同。Digital economy is a new engine of economic development and a new driving force for China's export to maintain stable growth.Based on the panel data of 262 prefecture-level cities,the impact of digital economy development on China's trade export is analyzed empirically in this paper.The research results show that:first,there is a significant positive spatial correlation in China's digital economy development,but its agglomeration feature is weakening,and the influence of digital economy is penetrating from the coast to the inland;second,the development of digital economy significantly promotes the growth of trade exports,and this promotion effect has a nonlinear feature of increasing first and then decreasing;third,digital economy has a positive asymmetric spatial spillover effect on trade exports,and the spatial spillover effect received by digitally developed cities is significantly larger than that by digitally underdeveloped cities;fourth,regional heterogeneity analysis finds that there is an asymmetric spatial spillover effect in the eastern region,but not in the central and western regions,and the three regions have different nonlinear features of digital economy on trade exports.

关 键 词：数字经济 贸易出口 半参数门限空间模型 空间溢出效应 非线性 

分 类 号：F752.8[经济管理—国际贸易]