数字技术发展对双边股票资本流动管制效果的影响研究  

Research on the Impact of Digital Technology Development on the Effect of Bilateral Equity Flow Controls

作　　者：李兴申 谭小芬 李曦晨 LI Xingshen;TAN Xiaofen;LI Xichen

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学经济学院 [2]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2023年第11期122-134,M0004,共14页World Economy Studies

基　　金：2020年度国家社会科学基金重大项目“负利率时代金融系统性风险的识别和防范研究”(项目编号:20&ZD101);2021年度国家社会科学基金重点项目“稳慎推进人民币国际化的策略和路径”(项目编号:21AZD066);首都经济贸易大学新入职青年教师科研启动基金项目(项目编号:XRZ2023060)的资助。

摘　　要：文章基于2001~2019年全球主要经济体之间的双边股票资本流动数据,构建各经济体数字技术发展指标,实证检验数字技术发展对双边股票资本流动管制效果的影响。研究发现,数字技术的发展将显著削弱各经济体双边股票资本流动管制效果。渠道分析表明,数字技术发展进一步增加了一些经济体受跨境“热钱”冲击的压力,使其受到更多来自离岸金融中心的跨境投资,也推动其提高加密货币持有率。这说明数字技术发展可能会增加投资者跨境投资的监管规避渠道,进而造成双边股票资本流动管制效果下降。此外,异质性分析发现,新兴经济体受跨境“热钱”冲击更强,数字技术发展对其资本账户管制提出更为严峻的考验。文章的研究揭示了全球经济金融数字化发展背景下跨境金融监管领域遭遇的新挑战,为新兴经济体更好地应对数字化冲击提供有益参考。Whether the development of digital technology will have an impact on the effectiveness of capital account controls in various economies while enhancing the convenience of cross-border investment?Based on the bilateral equity flow data between major economies in the world from 2001 to 2019,this paper constructs the digital technology development indicators of each economy,and empirically tests the impact of digital technology development on the effect of bilateral equity flow controls.The study finds that the development of digital technology will significantly weaken the effect of bilateral equity flow controls in various economies.Channel analysis shows that the development of digital technology has further increased the pressure of cross-border"hot money"shocks in some economies.The development of digital technology has caused some economies to receive more cross-border investment from offshore financial centers,and has also promoted the increase in cryptocurrency ownership in some economies,indicating that the development of digital technology may increase the regulatory avoidance channels for investors to invest across borders,thereby reducing the effect of bilateral equity flow controls.In addition,the heterogeneity analysis found that emerging economies are more strongly affected by cross-border"hot money",and the development of digital technology poses a more severe test for their capital controls.This paper reveals the new challenges encountered in the field of cross-border financial supervision under the background of the digital development of global economy and finance,and provides useful reference for emerging economies to better cope with the impact of digitalization.

关 键 词：跨境股票资本流动 数字技术 资本账户管制 跨境资本流动管理 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学] F831.51F49