Global burden of inflammatory bowel disease 1990-2019:A systematic examination of the disease burden and twenty-year forecast  

作　　者：Cheng-Jun Li Yi-Kai Wang Shun-Ming Zhang Mu-Dan Ren Shui-Xiang He 

机构地区：[1]Department of Gastroenterology,The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710061,Shaanxi Province,China [2]Department of Infectious Diseases,The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710004,Shaanxi Province,China [3]School of Public Health,Xi’an Jiaotong University Health Science Center,Xi’an 710061,Shaanxi Province,China

出　　处：《World Journal of Gastroenterology》2023年第42期5751-5767,共17页世界胃肠病学杂志（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by the Key Research and Development Program of Shaanxi,No.2021ZDLSF02-06.

摘　　要：BACKGROUND Inflammatory bowel disease(IBD)is an idiopathic intestinal disease with various levels and trends in different countries and regions.Understanding the current burden and trends of IBD in various geographical locations is essential to establish effective strategies for prevention and treatment.We report the average annual percentage change(AAPC)and estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)in age-standardized rates(ASR)of IBD in different regions based on the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)study from 1990-2019,and the relationships between IBD and the human development index(HDI)and socio-demographic index(SDI).The prevalence trends of IBD were predicted by gender from 2019-2039.AIM To comprehensively investigate IBD data,providing further insights into the management of this chronic disease.METHODS We collected the information on the incidence of IBD from the GBD study from 1990-2019 to calculate the AAPC and EAPC in ASR of IBD in different regions.The relationships between IBD,HDI,and SDI were analyzed.The Nordpred and Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to predict the prevalence trends of IBD by gender from 2019-2039,and the reliability of the results was validated.RESULTS North America consistently had the highest IBD ASR,while Oceania consistently had the lowest.East Asia had the fastest average annual growth in ASR(2.54%),whereas Central Europe had the fastest decline(1.38%).Countries with a low age-standardized incidence rates in 1990 showed faster growth in IBD while there was no significant correlation in 2019.Additionally,IBD increased faster in countries with a low age-standardized death rates in 1990,whereas the opposite was true in 2019.Analysis of SDI and IBD ASR showed that countries with a high SDI generally had a higher IBD ASR.Finally,the projections showed a declining trend in the incidence of IBD from 2019-2039,but a gradual increase in the number of cases.CONCLUSION As the global population increases and ages,early monitoring and prevention of IBD is important to reduce the dise

关 键 词：Inflammatory bowel disease INCIDENCE Average annual percentage change Age-standardized rates Prevalence trends Global Burden of Disease 

分 类 号：R574[医药卫生—消化系统]