基于全生命周期的个人养老金资产优化配置  

Optimal allocation of individual pension assets based on full-lifecycle

作　　者：胡继晔 于松宁 HU Jiye;YU Songning

机构地区：[1]中国政法大学商学院,北京100088

出　　处：《社会保障研究》2023年第5期12-24,共13页Social Security Studies

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“促进我国多层次养老保险体系发展研究”(21JZD035)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：自2022年11月我国个人养老金制度正式建立以来,个人如何配置税优的养老金资产成为民众关心的重要民生问题。参考养老目标日期基金下滑曲线的设计方法,构造了基于三资产组合的全生命周期个人养老金投资模型。并基于等距抽样与贝叶斯概率定理,用计算机编程求解、仿真得到个人养老资产配置的权益类资产占比下滑曲线,上万次仿真结果证明了模型的有效性。基于此,建议个人养老金投资者选择投资与自身退休年份相当的养老目标日期基金,年轻时增加权益类资产投资,逐步增加固定收益类产品的投资比重,以实现个人养老金全生命周期动态优化配置。Since the official establishment of the individual pension system in November 2022,how individuals allocate preferential tax pension assets has become an important livelihood issue of public concern.In this paper,the full-lifecycle individual pension investment model of the three-asset portfolio is constructed by referring to the design method of the pension target date fund decline curve.Based on isometry sampling and Bayes probability theorem,the declining curve of the equity assets ratio of individual pension asset allocation is obtained by computer programming and simulation.Tens of thousands of simulation results prove its effectiveness.Based on above model,it is suggested that individual pension investors choose to invest in pension target-date funds that are equivalent to their retirement years,increase investment in equity assets when they are young,and gradually increase the proportion of investment in fixed income products,so as to achieve dynamic optimal allocation of individual pension in full-lifecycle.

关 键 词：个人养老金 全生命周期 动态资产配置 养老目标日期基金 

分 类 号：F842.6[经济管理—保险]