基于贝叶斯和改进VIKOR的核事故应急决策方法研究  

Research on nuclear accident emergency decision based on Bayesian and improved VIKOR

作　　者：陈甲华 王平平[1] CHEN Jiahua;WANG Pingping(School of Economics Management and Law,University of South China,Hengyang Hunan 421001,China)

机构地区：[1]南华大学经济管理与法学学院,湖南衡阳421001 [2]南华大学核设施应急安全作业技术与装备湖南省重点实验室,湖南衡阳421001

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2023年第12期34-38,共5页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金：湖南省社科基金项目(14JD51);湖南省教育厅重点项目(19A443)。

摘　　要：针对核事故应急决策问题,提出一种基于贝叶斯和改进VIKOR相结合的方法。利用贝叶斯理论对核事故等级进行判定,实现阶段性执行结果和即时信息对核事故等级的动态分析。针对核事故应急决策的初始阶段,采用熵权法得到属性的客观权重,利用VIKOR方法得到备选方案的最优选择;随着核事故的演化,考虑核事故演变的程度与决策者预期,引入累计前景理论实现对核应急方案的调整。最后,通过算例分析,验证所提出方法的实践性与有效性。Aiming at the problem of nuclear accident emergency decision-making,an improved VIKOR method based on Bayesian,entropy weight method and prospect theory is proposed.The Bayesian method is used to judge the nuclear accident level,and the dynamic analysis of the nuclear accident level is realized through staged execution results and instant information.For the initial stage of nuclear accident emergency decision-making,entropy weight method is used to obtain the objective weight of attributes,and VIKOR method is used to obtain the optimal selection of alternatives;With the evolution of nuclear accidents,considering the evolution degree of nuclear accidents and the expectations of decision-makers,the cumulative prospect theory is introduced to adjust the nuclear emergency plan.Finally,an example is given to verify the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed method.

关 键 词：贝叶斯 熵权法 累计前景理论 VIKOR 核应急决策 

分 类 号：TL73[核科学技术—辐射防护及环境保护]