长江经济带PM_(2.5)时空演变及健康经济效益评估  

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of PM_(2.5)and Health Economic Benefit Assessment in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

作　　者：李飞 郭锦媛[1,2] 屈志光 闫晶晶 孔少杰[1,2] 周媛媛 欧昌宏 Li Fei;Guo Jinyuan;Qu Zhiguang;Yan Jingjing;Kong Shaojie;Zhou Yuanyuan;Ou Changhong(Research Center for Environment and Health,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Hubei,Wuhan,430073;School of Information and Safety Engineering,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Hubei,Wuhan,430073)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学环境与健康研究中心,湖北武汉430073 [2]中南财经政法大学信息安全工程学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《安全、健康和环境》2023年第11期48-59,共12页Safety Health & Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(青年项目19CGL042);长江经济带环境毒物的风险识别模式与智慧管控机制研究。

摘　　要：系统分析了《大气污染防治行动计划》考核为优秀、良好、合格的36个城市在2017—2019年细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))浓度的时空分布情况,借助BenMAP解析控制PM_(2.5)污染带来的健康经济收益,对PM_(2.5)浓度和气象因素进行Pearson相关分析,同时利用地理加权回归确定控制PM_(2.5)污染带来的经济收益的多种社会经济驱动力。结果表明:(1)2017—2019年长江经济带PM_(2.5)年均浓度降低了17%;(2)长江经济带因PM_(2.5)浓度降低而减少的全因死亡人数为67943人,获得经济收益1548.18亿元;(3)2017—2019年长三角城市群空气质量改善获得的经济收益为558.62亿元,占长江经济带经济收益的36.08%,长江中游城市群空气质量改善获得的经济收益为554.71亿元,占长江经济带经济收益的35.83%,成渝城市群空气质量改善获得的经济收益为430.71亿元,占长江经济带经济收益的27.82%;(4)平均气温与PM_(2.5)浓度有显著相关性,人口密度对控制PM_(2.5)的经济收益影响最大。根据以上分析,提出对成都、重庆、南昌、合肥、扬州、黄石、武汉、九江、上海、黄冈等经济效益大的城市优先管控,并提出了分区分类治理区域大气污染和对人口密度高、城镇化率高的地区严格把控等政策建议。The spatial and temporal distribution of PM_(2.5)concentration in 36 cities assessed as excellent,good and qualified in Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan was systematically analyzed from 2017—2019.Pearson correlation analysis of PM_(2.5)concentration and meteorological factors was conducted with the help of BenMAP analysis on the health and economic benefits of PM_(2.5)pollution control.At the same time,geographical weighted regression was used to identify the multiple socio-economic driving forces for the economic benefits of controlling PM_(2.5)pollution.The results showed that①The annual average concentration of PM_(2.5)in the Yangtze River Economic Belt decreased by 17%from 2017 to 2019.②The total number of avoided all-cause deaths in the Yangtze River Economic Belt decreased due to the decrease of PM_(2.5)concentration was 67,943,and the economic benefit was 154.818 billion.③From 2017 to 2019,the economic benefit of air quality improvement in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration was 55.862 billion RMB,accounting for 36.08%of the economic benefit of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and the economic benefit of air quality improvement in the middle reached of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration was 55.471 billion RMB,accounting for 35.83%of the economic benefit of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The economic benefit of air quality improvement in Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration was 43.071 billion RMB,accounting for 27.82%of the economic benefit of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.④There was a significant correlation between average air temperature and PM_(2.5)concentration,and population density had the greatest influence on economic benefits of PM_(2.5)control.According to the above analysis,the priority control of cities with great economic benefits,such as Chengdu,Chongqing,Nanchang,Hefei,Yangzhou,Huangshi,Wuhan,Jiujiang,Shanghai and Huanggang was put forward.Two policy suggestions,such as controlling regional air pollution by classification and strictly controlling areas

关 键 词：PM_(2.5) 空间自相关 地理加权回归 BenMAP 大气污染防治 

分 类 号：X511[环境科学与工程—环境工程]