基于Fuzzy-LOPA分析的储罐区池火灾风险评价  

Fire Risk Assessment of Storage Tank Area Pool Based-on Fuzzy-LOPA Analysis

作　　者：连子超 张亚明 张路 王旭辉 许佳 梁昌晶 Lian Zichao;Zhang Yaming;Zhang Lu;Wang Xuhui;Xu Jia;Liang Changjing(Huabei Oilfield Huagang Gas Group Co.Ltd.,Renqiu,062552,China;Bohai Well Testing Company,CNPC,Langfang,065000,China;No.5 Oil Production Plant of Huabei Oilfield Company,CNPC,Xinji,052360,China;The Eleventh Exploit Factory of PetroChina Changqing Oilfield Company,Xi an,710016,China;Dezhou Operation Region,PipeChina Shandong Branch,Dezhou,253000,China)

机构地区：[1]华北油田公司华港燃气集团,河北任丘062552 [2]中国石油渤海钻探油气井测试分公司,河北廊坊065000 [3]华北油田公司第五采油厂,河北辛集052360 [4]中国石油长庆油田分公司第十一采油厂,陕西西安710016 [5]国家管网集团山东省分公司德州作业区,山东德州253000

出　　处：《石油化工自动化》2023年第6期50-53,共4页Automation in Petro-chemical Industry

摘　　要：为定量计算储罐区因池火灾引发的事故风险值,判断现有风险是否满足风险可容忍程度,将模糊数学理论和保护层分析相结合,从事故发生可能性和事故后果两方面进行保护层识别。根据隶属度函数确定模糊语言,通过模糊控制规则确定风险模糊值,并进行模糊逻辑运算、模糊推理和解模糊化处理,最终得到风险的清晰值,并通过了实例分析和验证。结果表明:待评价储罐的风险结果属于“可容忍”的概率为83%,属于“不可容忍”的概率为17%;该方法与传统方法相比,体现了过程风险的动态性和模糊性,风险评估结果更加准确。研究结果可为站场同类设备和工艺的风险评价及安全仪表系统的定级提供实际参考。To quantitatively calculate the accident risk value caused by pool fire in the storage tank area,and to judge whether the existing risk meets the risk tolerance level,combining the fuzzy mathematics theory and protection layer analysis,protection layer identification is conducted from two aspects of accident possibility and accident consequence.The fuzzy language is determined according to the membership degree function,the risk fuzzy value is determined through the fuzzy control rules,fuzzy logic operation,fuzzy reasoning and fuzzy processing are conducted,the clear value of the risk is finally obtained,a practical example analysis and verification are pass through.The results show that the risk result belongs to “tolerable” is 83%,and that belongs to “intolerable” is 17%.Compared with traditional methods,the method embodies the dynamic and fuzziness of process risk,and the risk assessment is more accurate.The research results can provide practical reference for the grading of risk assessment and safety instrumented system of similar equipment and process in the station.

关 键 词：模糊数学 保护层分析 储罐 池火灾 风险 模糊控制规则 

分 类 号：TQ086[化学工程]