社会保障与农村居民消费提振——基于CGSS数据的实证分析  

Social Security and Boost of Rural Residents’ Consumption:An Empirical Analysis Based on CGSS Data

作　　者：张艳 金炜皓 ZHANG Yan;JIN Wei-hao

机构地区：[1]江苏师范大学商学院,江苏徐州221116 [2]南京师范大学教育科学学院,江苏南京210024

出　　处：《三峡大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2024年第1期50-58,116,共10页Journal of China Three Gorges University(Humanities & Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“中国高质量发展理论框架与经验问题研究”(20FJLB020)。

摘　　要：消费是未来国内大循环发展的主要潜力。在揭示社会保障影响农村居民消费的传导机理的基础上,基于中国综合社会调查(CGSS)相关数据,采用分位数回归方法,检验了社会保障影响农村居民消费的数量关系。研究发现:社会保障对农村居民消费具有促进作用,但总体上作用不强,且其对中低消费层次农村居民的消费影响更大。分不同的社会保障项目来看,医疗保险对农村居民消费的影响并不明显,而养老保险对农村居民消费则有显著的正向影响。且相比于低消费层次的农村居民,养老保险对中高消费层次居民的消费促进作用更大。基于以上结论,提高农村居民对社会保障的满意度,扩大农村养老保险的覆盖率并根据经济社会发展情况建立养老金的动态调整机制以及加快推进农村基本医疗保险制度改革等是提振农村居民消费的有效途径。Consumption is the main potential for future domestic circular development.On the basis of revealing the transmission mechanism of social security affecting rural residents’consumption,quantile regression method is used to test the quantitative relationship between them with the data from the China Comprehensive Social Survey(CGSS).The research suggests that social security has a promoting effect on rural residents’consumption.But its overall effect is not strong,and it has a greater impact on the consumption of rural residents at middle and low consumption levels.In terms of different social security projects,the impact of medical insurance on rural residents’consumption is not significant,while endowment insurance has a significant positive impact on rural residents’consumption.Endowment insurance has a greater role in promoting consumption among the rural residents of medium to high consumption levels than those of lower consumption levels.Based on the above conclusions,several effective ways can be proposed to boost rural residents’consumption,including improving the satisfaction of rural residents with social security,expanding the coverage of rural endowment insurance,establishing dynamic adjustment mechanisms for pension based on economic and social development,and accelerating the reform of rural basic medical insurance system.

关 键 词：社会保障 农村居民消费提振 消费层次 分位数回归 

分 类 号：F328[经济管理—产业经济]