基于“突变—演化”模型的颠覆性技术识别方法及应用  

Disruptive Technology Identification Method and Application Based on the"Mutation-Evolution"Model

作　　者：熊焰 张凌恺 陈旭 江瑶 Xiong Yan;Zhang Lingkai;Chen Xu;Jiang Yao(School of Economics&Management,Shanghai Institute of Technology,Shanghai 201418;School of Management,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201620)

机构地区：[1]上海应用技术大学经济与管理学院,上海201418 [2]上海工程技术大学管理学院,上海201620

出　　处：《情报杂志》2023年第12期119-126,152,共9页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“国际学习对制造企业国际化速度的作用机制与时空效应研究”(编号:71974130);上海市2023年度“科技创新行动计划”软科学研究项目“面向上海未来产业培育的颠覆性技术识别及突破路径研究”(编号:23692123100);上海市青年科技英才扬帆计划项目“上海融合性数字产业‘卡脖子’技术甄选机制与攻关路径研究”(编号:21YF1415900)研究成果。

摘　　要：[研究目的]瞄准世界科技前沿,有效识别并前瞻布局颠覆性技术,已成为我国塑造未来竞争新优势,实现高水平科技自立自强的关键。[研究方法]从颠覆性技术的突变特征与演化路径出发,构建“突变—演化”模型;再计算技术突变值与技术演化值,识别出候选颠覆性技术;最后对比现有研究,并参考专家意见和行业报告,验证模型的有效性,筛选出颠覆性技术。[研究结论]以集成电路材料专利数据为样本,识别出“光刻胶”“非硅基衬底材料”和“封装材料”等主题是集成电路材料颠覆性技术的重点方向,与目前集成电路材料产业发展现状相一致,验证了“突变-演化”颠覆性技术识别模型的科学性及有效性。[Research purpose]Aiming at the forefront of world technology,effective identifying and foreseeing disruptive technologies has become the key for our country to shape new advantages in future competition and achieve high-level technological self-reliance.[Research method]Starting from the disruptive technological mutation characteristics and evolutionary paths,we construct a"mutation-evolution"model.Then,we calculate the technological mutation value and technological evolution value to identify potential disruptive technologies.Finally,comparing with existing research and considering expert opinions and industry reports,we validate the effectiveness of our model and select disruptive technologies.[Research conclusion]Using integrated circuit material patent data as a sample,we identify"photoresist","non-silicon-based substrate materials"and"packaging materials"as key directions for disruptive technologies in integrated circuit materials.This is consistent with the current development status of the integrated circuit material industry,confirming the scientific property and effectiveness of the"mutation-evolution"model for identifying disruptive technologies.

关 键 词：颠覆性技术 “突变—演化”模型 技术识别 集成电路材料 专利分析 指标体系 突变理论 

分 类 号：G353.1[文化科学—情报学]