1921—2020年呼伦贝尔草原区气温变化特征分析  

Analysis of the Variation Characteristics of Air Temperatu in Hulunbuir Grassland Area from 1921 to 2020

作　　者：张德龙 韩仲强 刘天琦 张杰 Zhang Deong;Han Zhongqiang;Liu Tianqi;Zhang Jie(Inner Mongolia Meteorological Data Center,Inner Mongolia Hohhot 010051;Inner Mongolia Weather Modification Center,Inner Mongolia Hohhot 010051)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古气象数据中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010051 [2]内蒙古人工影响天气中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《内蒙古气象》2023年第3期10-14,共5页Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia

摘　　要：选取呼伦贝尔地区博克图、海拉尔、满洲里1921—2020年气温观测数据,利用线性倾向估计、滑动平均、距平法分析该地区各年代际气温变化趋势,利用Morlet小波分析研究气温变化周期性特征,利用Mann-Kendall检验研究气温的突变特性。结果表明:草原区年平均气温总体上呈先降后升的趋势,总体增温为2.7℃。该地区气温变化分两个阶段,20世纪30—90年代属偏冷时期,增暖主要发生在最近的30多年,从20世纪90年代开始,气温属偏暖期,整体趋势与5年滑动平均曲线、距平以及UF的分析结论一致。以冬季为代表季分析气温变化趋势,草原区冬季存在10~20年的震荡周期,增温主要是从20世纪50年代中期开始,60—80年代气温始终在较小的范围内上下波动,气温在1968年发生突变,1983年之后气温显著上升。整体趋势近100年年平均气温与冬季平均气温变化基本保持一致。The temperature observation data of Boketu,Hailar and Manzhouli from 1921 to 2020 were selected to analyze the interdecadal variation of temperature in Hulunbuir grassland area by linear trend estimation,moving average and anomaly methods,while the periodic variation characteristics of temperature were analyzed by Morlet-wavelet analysis and the abrupt characteristics of temperature were analyzed by Mann Kendall test.The results indicated that the overall average annual temperature in Hulunbuir grassland area was declined at first and then began to increase,the increase of temperature was 2.7℃over those years.The variation of temperature in this region could be divided into two periods.The first period was partial cooling from the 1930s to the 1990s and the second one was warming in recent 30 years.The temperature had been rising since the 1990s,and the overall upward trend was consistent with the analysis results of the 5-year moving average curve,anomaly,and UF.Taking winter as the representative season to analyze the variation trend of temperature,the grassland area had a 10-20 year oscillation cycle in winter.The warming started from the mid-1950s mainly,and the temperature fluctuated within a small range from the 1960s to the 1980s.There was a sudden change in 1968,and then the temperature increased in 1983 significantly.The overall variation trend of annual average temperature was consistent with that of winter average temperature over the past 100 years.

关 键 词：气温变化趋势 MANN-KENDALL检验 突变 显著性检验 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]