海上风场短时风速混合威布尔逼近方法  

MIXED WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION APPROXIMATION OF SHORT-TERM OFFSHORE WIND SPEED

作　　者：叶星汝 董树锋[3] 严秋雨 赵一凡 栾富豪 朱嵘华 Ye Xingru;Dong Shufeng;Yan Qiuyu;Zhao Yifan;Luan Fuhao;Zhu Ronghua(Ocean College,Zhejiang University,Zhoushan 316021,China;Interdisciplinary Student Training Platform for Marine Areas,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310027,China;College of Electrical Engineering,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310027,China;Yangjiang Offshore Wind Energy Laboratory,Yangjiang 529500,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学海洋学院,舟山316021 [2]浙江大学海洋领域交叉人才培养平台,杭州310027 [3]浙江大学电气工程学院,杭州310027 [4]阳江海上风电实验室,阳江529500

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2023年第11期224-230,共7页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：广东省重点领域研发计划(2021B0707030002)。

摘　　要：海上风场风速分布特性是评估海上风场发电能力的重要因素,海上风场短时风速常呈现多峰特性,需采用混合威布尔分布。针对混合威布尔分布参数多、逼近难度大的问题,提出一种海上风场短时风速混合威布尔逼近方法,该方法以方差最小为优化目标,以矩估计值为参数初始值,以各参数取值范围为约束条件,利用改进后的粒子群算法DAIW-tanh优化参数,提高多峰型风速分布的逼近精度。算例表明:使用该方法对海上风场短时风速分布进行参数逼近,模型简单,计算速度快,不易陷入局部最优,能达到较好的逼近效果。The wind speed distribution in offshore wind farms is an important factor for evaluating the generated capacity. The distribution of short-term wind speed in offshore wind farms always has multi-peak characteristics,so the mixed Weibull distribution is required. Due to the variety of parameters and the difficulty in making the approximation of this distribution,a mixed Weibull distribution approximation method,which takes the minimum variance as the optimization objective and the value range of each parameter as the constraint condition,is proposed in this paper. Further,a modified particle swarm optimization algorithm,DAIWtanh,is used to optimize the parameters in the proposed method,which can enhance the approximation accuracy of multi-peak wind speed distribution. The numerical results show that the method is able to achieve higher approximation accuracy and higher computation speed,and is not easily trapped in local optimization,leading to a better approximation effect.

关 键 词：海上风电 海上风场 威布尔分布 参数估计 粒子群算法 

分 类 号：TK81[动力工程及工程热物理—流体机械及工程]