增值税留抵退税能否促进企业吸纳就业?——来自2019年试行留抵退税制度的证据  

Can VAT Credit Refund Promote Employment Absorption by Firms?Evidence from the Trial Implementation of the VAT Credit Refund System in 2019

作　　者：崔小勇[1] 蔡昀珊 卢国军 Cui Xiaoyong;Cai Yunshan;Lu Guojun(School of Economics,Peking University;School of Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院 [2]中央财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《管理世界》2023年第9期15-35,共21页Journal of Management World

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“促进经济高质量发展的税制结构优化与改革研究”(项目号:21&ZD097);国家社会科学基金重大项目“实质性减税降费与经济高质量发展研究”(项目号:19ZDA069);北京大学中央高校基本科研业务费资助。

摘　　要：税收优惠是政府“稳就业”、“保就业”的重要手段。本文以2019年增值税留抵退税政策作为准自然实验,利用2016~2020年全国税调数据建立多期DID模型评估增值税留抵退税政策对企业雇佣规模的影响。研究结果表明:(1)与控制组企业相比,留抵退税政策使得处理组企业就业规模扩大3.41%~5.85%;(2)留抵退税政策对企业就业规模的影响存在异质性,政策实施后,非国有企业、年轻企业、服务业行业企业就业规模扩张更为显著,而未对国有企业就业产生显著影响;(3)机制分析表明,留抵退税政策通过放松融资约束、扩大固定资产投资、促进企业创新进而扩大企业就业规模;(4)在运用“异质—稳健估计法”、“PSM-DID”方法后,基准模型回归结果依然稳健;(5)进一步分析表明,留抵退税增加了平均劳动成本和企业劳动收入份额。本文的研究结论为我们理解留抵退税与企业雇佣规模的关系,进而更有效地发挥税收政策的调节作用提供了新的启示。Tax incentives are important tools for the government to"stabilize employment"and"preserve employment".Based on the National Tax Survey Database(NTSD)from 2016 to 2020,we use the Value-Added Tax(VAT)credit refund policy in 2019 as a quasi-natural experiment to establish a multi-period DID model to assess the impact of the policy on the employment size of firms.The findings show that:(I)Compared with the control group firms,the policy causes the employment scale of the treatment group firms to expand by 3.41%-5.85%;(2)There is heterogeneity in the impact of the policy on the employment scale of firms,with more significant expansion of employment scale of non-SOEs,young firms,and service industry firms after the policy implementation,while there is no significant impact on SOE;(3)The mechanism analysis shows that the policy expands the employment of firms by relaxing financing constraints,expanding fixed asset investment,and promoting enterprise innovation;(4)After applying the"heterogeneous-robust estimation method"and"PSM-DID"method,the regression results of the benchmark model are still robust:(5)Further analysis shows that the policy leads to a significant increase in the average labor cost and the labor share of firms.The conclusions of this paper provide new insights into understanding the relationship between tax allowances and the size of firms employment,and thus the moderating role of tax policy more effectively.

关 键 词：增值税留抵退税 企业雇佣 多期DID 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学] F249.2