2015—2019年上海市某区大气污染物与医院门诊量的时间序列分析  

Time-series analysis of association between air pollution and hospital outpatient visits in a district of Shanghai from 2015 to 2019

作　　者：季鹏 沈先标[1] 袁震 严丽丽[1] 杨程[1] JI Peng;SHEN Xianbiao;YUAN Zhen;YAN Lili;YANG Cheng(Baoshan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 201901,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市宝山区疾病预防控制中心,上海201901

出　　处：《上海预防医学》2023年第10期970-975,共6页Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：上海市宝山区科学技术委员会科技创新专项资金项目(20-E-56);上海市宝山区卫生健康委员会2023年优青(育才)计划。

摘　　要：【目的】探讨上海市某区大气污染物对医院门诊量的时间序列的影响。【方法】收集2015年1月1日—2019年12月31日上海市某区逐日气象资料、环保资料、2家二级医院及2家三级医院的门诊数据,采用广义线性拟合泊松分布分析上海市该区大气污染物与医院门诊量的暴露−反应关系。【结果】研究期间纳入研究医院的接诊总量为17802634人次,日均总门诊(9750±4191)人次,日均内科呼吸系统门诊(761±341)人次。单污染物模型滞后效应中大气污染物质量浓度每上升10μg·m^(-3),PM_(2.5)、SO_(2)、NO_(2)对内科呼吸系统门诊量的滞后效应分别在滞后第4、5、7天达到最大值,RR值(95%CI)依次为1.0020(1.0013~1.0026)、1.0154(1.0123~1.0185)、1.0061(1.0053~1.0069)。【结论】大气污染物和医院各门诊均存在暴露−反应关系,且不同的污染物存在不同程度的滞后效应。[Objective]To explore the association between air pollutants and hospital outpatient visits in a district of Shanghai.[Methods]Daily meteorological data,environmental data,data of outpatient visits to two secondary hospitals and two tertiary hospitals in this district from January 1,2015 to December 31,2019 were collected.A Poisson regression generalized linear model was used to analyze the exposureresponse relationship between the air pollutants and hospital outpatient visits in this area.[Results]During the study period,the total number of outpatient visits in the included hospitals was 17802634,with an average daily total of(9750±4191)outpatient visits,and an average daily of(761±341)respiratory outpatient visits.In the lag effect of single pollutant model,when the concentration of air pollutant increased by 10μg·m^(−3),PM_(2.5),SO_(2),NO_(2)had the maximum lag effect on the number of outpatient visits in the department of internal medicine for respiratory diseases on lag day 4,day 5 and day 7,respectively.And the RR values and 95%CI were 1.0020(1.0013‒1.0026),1.0154(1.0123‒1.0185),and 1.0061(1.0053‒1.0069),respectively.[Conclusion]There is a exposure-response relationship between air pollutants and the number of outpatient visits in each department of the hospitals,and different pollutants have different degrees of lag effects.

关 键 词：大气污染物 空气污染 门诊 时间序列分析 广义线性模型 暴露−反应关系 

分 类 号：R12[医药卫生—环境卫生学] R714.253[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]