政策生命周期视角下产业政策不确定性与企业创新质量关系研究  

A Study on the Relationship between Industrial Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Innovation Quality:Based on the Policy Life Cycle Perspective

作　　者：胡世亮[1,2] 黄永春 徐高彦[1] Hu Shiliang;Huang Yongchun;Xu Gaoyan(School of Business,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100;School of Business,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044;Institute of Social Sciences,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098)

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,南京211100 [2]南京信息工程大学商学院,南京210044 [3]河海大学社会科学研究院,南京210098

出　　处：《管理评论》2023年第10期118-134,共17页Management Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21BGL016);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目(2021SJZDA027)。

摘　　要：产业扶持政策是我国促进企业创新的重要手段之一,其不确定性会对微观企业创新决策造成巨大冲击。本文采用2008—2017年中国A股上市公司数据,考察了产业政策不确定性对企业创新质量的影响以及企业财务柔性的调节作用。研究发现:产业政策变更不确定性会激励企业创新质量,而产业政策执行不确定性会抑制企业创新质量;在此过程中,企业财务柔性具有正向调节作用,且相比于负债柔性,现金柔性起到主导调节作用。影响机制分析表明:企业的政策不确定性感知与融资约束是产业政策不确定性影响企业创新质量的核心传导机制。进一步分析发现:相比于中低质量创新,产业政策变更不确定性对高质量创新的激励效应更强,而产业政策执行不确定性对高质量创新的抑制效应更弱。研究可以为深入理解政策不确定性对企业创新决策的负外部性提供新的经验证据,也为企业应对政策不确定性冲击以及政府优化产业政策制定与执行提供决策参考。China’s industrial support policy is one of the important means to promote corporate innovation,and its uncertainty will have a great impact on the innovation decision of micro enterprises.Using the data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2008 to 2017,this paper examines the impact of industrial policy uncertainty on corporate innovation quality and the moderating effect of corporate financial flexibility.The results show that industrial policy change uncertainty facilitates corporate innovation quality,while industrial policy implementation uncertainty inhibits corporate innovation quality.In the process,corporate financial flexibility has a positive moderating effect,and compared with debt flexibility,cash flexibility plays a leading moderating role.The influence mechanism analysis shows that,the perception of policy uncertainty and financing constraint is the core conduction mechanisms of industrial policy uncertainty affecting corporate innovation quality.Further analysis shows that,the incentive effect of industrial policy change uncertainty on high-quality innovation outcomes is stronger than that of low-quality and medium-quality innovation,while the disincentive effect of industrial policy implementation uncertainty on high-quality innovation outcomes is weaker.This paper could provide new empirical evidence for in-depth understanding of the negative externality of policy uncertainty on firms’innovation decision-making,and also provide decision-making reference for firms to deal with the impact of policy uncertainty and the government to optimize the formulation and implementation of industrial policies.

关 键 词：产业政策不确定性 政策变更不确定性 政策执行不确定性 企业创新质量 企业财务柔性 

分 类 号：F273.1[经济管理—企业管理] F832.51[经济管理—国民经济] F120