船舶会遇过程碰撞风险演化随机Petri网模型  

Evolution model on risk of collision in process of ship encoutering using stochastic Petri net

作　　者：杜晓雨 胡甚平[1] 李圣媛 轩少永[1] DU Xiaoyu;HU Shenping;LI Shengyuan;XUAN Shaoyong(Merchant Marine College,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;Guangzhou Port Pilotage Station,Guangzhou 510100,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306 [2]广州港引航站,广东广州510100

出　　处：《上海海事大学学报》2023年第4期25-32,98,共9页Journal of Shanghai Maritime University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52272353);国家重点研发计划(2021YFC2801005)。

摘　　要：为探讨船舶碰撞风险随时间和空间变化的动态演化规律,提出一种基于随机Petri网的船舶碰撞风险演化模型。通过分析影响船舶航行安全的主要因素,构建船舶碰撞风险演化的指标网络拓扑模型,并构建同型的马尔科夫链得到各状态下的稳态概率表达式,通过仿真实现对船舶碰撞风险演化过程的定量分析。案例结果表明船舶碰撞风险演化是阶段性的多路径共同作用的结果,并伴随着风险因素的累积和耦合的演化。此模型可以用于分析基于多因素耦合的船舶碰撞风险演化过程,将演化过程中各节点的风险值量化,实现了从多因素耦合和风险演化的角度对船舶会遇动态风险的研究。In order to explore the dynamic evolution law of ship collision risk with time and space,an evolution model on ship collision risk based on the stochastic Petri net is proposed.By analyzing the main factors that affect the ship navigation safety,the index network topology model of the evolution of ship collision risk is constructed,the Markov chain with the same type is constructed to obtain the steady state probability expression in each state,and the quantitative analysis on the evolution process of ship collision risk is realized by simulation.The results of the case study show that the ship collision risk evolution is the result of the joint action of multiple paths in stages,accompanied by the accumulation and coupling evolution of risk factors.The model can be used to analyze the ship collision risk evolution process based on multi-factor coupling,quantify the risk value of each node in the evolution process,and realize the study of dynamic risk of ship encountering from the perspective of multi-factor coupling and risk evolution.

关 键 词：航行风险 风险演化 致因路径 碰撞事故 随机Petri网(SPN) 马尔科夫链 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]