交通管控对新冠疫情传播的影响分析——以厦门市为例  

Impact analysis of traffic control on COVID-19 spread:a case study of Xiamen

作　　者：刘博威 刘晓佳[1,2] LIU Bowei;LIU Xiaojia(Navigation College,Jimei University,Xiamen 361021,Fujian,China;Marine Traffic Safety Institute,Jimei University,Xiamen 361021,Fujian,China)

机构地区：[1]集美大学航海学院,福建厦门361021 [2]集美大学海上交通安全研究所,福建厦门361021

出　　处：《上海海事大学学报》2023年第4期69-75,90,共8页Journal of Shanghai Maritime University

基　　金：福建省教育厅项目(JAT210248)。

摘　　要：为研究交通管控措施对新冠疫情传播的影响,以厦门市2021年9月份出现的疫情为例,对各项交通管控措施下的疫情传播趋势进行分析,并讨论不同交通管控措施对疫情的阻断效果。以经典易感者-潜伏者-感染者-康复者(susceptible-exposed-infected-removed,SEIR)传染病模型为基础,建立有人口迁入迁出的SEIR模型和有交通限制的SEIR模型,并以误差最小为目标通过粒子群(particle swarm optimization,PSO)算法计算出更符合疫情实际的最优参数。将改进的有交通限制的SEIR模型与最优参数相结合模拟出不同交通管控措施下疫情的传播趋势并进行分析。结果表明:根据最优参数拟合出的疫情传播趋势与实际疫情传播趋势较为一致,且不同交通管控措施对疫情的阻断效果存在差异;及时实施限制人口迁入迁出措施可使疫情达到高峰的时间提前,及时实施限制市内交通出行措施可使感染人数峰值降低,综合并及时实施各项交通管控措施对疫情阻断的效果最为明显。因此,在疫情来临时,越及时实施综合交通管控措施对疫情的阻断就越有效。In order to study the impact of traffic control measures on COVID-19 spread,taking the epidemic situation in Xiamen in September 2021 as an example,the epidemic spread trend under the implementation of various traffic control measures is analyzed,and the blocking effects of different traffic control measures on the epidemic are discussed.Based on the classic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed(SEIR)infectious disease model,an SEIR model with population migration and an SEIR model with traffic control are established.Taking the minimum error as the objective,the optimal parameters that are more in line with the actual situation of the epidemic are calculated through the particle swarm optimization(PSO)algorithm.The improved SEIR model with traffic control is combined with the optimal parameters to simulate and analyze the spread of the epidemic in different traffic control measures.The results show that:the epidemic spread trend fitted according to the optimal parameters is consistent with the actual epidemic spread trend,and the epidemic blocking effects of different traffic control measures are different;the timely implementation of measures to restrict population migration can advance the epidemic peak time,the timely implementation of measures to control urban traffic can reduce the peak number of infected people,and the comprehensive and timely implementation of various traffic control measures has the most obvious blocking effect on the epidemic.Therefore,when the epidemic comes,the sooner the comprehensively traffic control measures are carried out,the more effective the epidemic will be blocked.

关 键 词：交通管控 新冠疫情 易感者-潜伏者-感染者-康复者(SEIR)模型 粒子群优化算法 

分 类 号：U491.4[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] R181.8[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]