盈余质量、羊群效应与分析师预测  

Earnings Quality,Herd Effect and Analysts'Forecast

作　　者：王萍[1] WANG Ping(Accounting Department,Qingdao Vocational and Technical College of Hotel Management,Qingdao 260043,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛酒店管理职业技术学院会计学院,山东青岛260043

出　　处：《铜仁学院学报》2023年第6期95-108,共14页Journal of Tongren University

摘　　要：以2016—2021年沪深股市非金融类公司为样本,在全面梳理国内外对盈余质量、分析师预测和羊群效应的研究基础上,综合运用行为金融学中的最新成果,对公司盈余质量、分析师羊群行为与分析师预测以及三者之间的作用关系进行了深入全面的研究。研究发现:公司的盈余质量越低,分析师盈利预测的准确性越差;同时,分析师的羊群行为会降低分析师盈利预测的准确度,并削弱公司盈余质量对分析师预测的影响,从而揭示了分析师的心理因素导致的预测低效率,为监管部门及证券公司提升分析师队伍的独立预测能力、防止利益冲突、优化激励制度提供了依据。Taking non-financial companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2016 to 2021 as a sample,this paper conducts an in-depth and comprehensive study on the relationship between corporate earnings quality,analyst herding behavior and analyst forecasting,as well as the role of the three by making an overall use of the latest achievements in behavioral finance,based on a comprehensive review of domestic and international research on three counterparts.The research finds that the lower the earnings quality of a company,the worse the accuracy of analysts'earnings forecast;At the same time,the herding behavior of analysts will reduce the accuracy of analysts'earnings forecasts and weaken the impact of earnings quality on analysts'forecasts.The innovation of this study is that,for the first time,from the perspective of behavioral finance,it discusses the impact of analyst herding behavior on the relationship between corporate earnings quality and analyst forecast,which supplements and enriches the relevant literature on herding effect and behavioral finance theory.The conclusion of this paper reveals the low prediction efficiency caused by analysts’psychological factors,which provides a basis for regulators and securities companies to improve the independent prediction ability of analysts,prevent conflicts of interest,and optimize the incentive system.

关 键 词：盈余质量 可操纵性应计利润 羊群效应 预测准确性 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理] F832.51[经济管理—国民经济]